The Lakers are huge favorites laying 10 points against the struggling Mavericks. We analyze the massive point spread and injury report to deliver our high-value ATS pick for the November 28th slate.
The Setup: Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers are laying 10 points against a Mavericks squad that’s limping into Crypto.com Arena at 5-14, and I’m here to tell you—the books are begging you to take Dallas and those double-digit points. Look at this matchup on paper: Lakers sitting pretty at 13-4, ranked 2nd in the conference, facing a Mavs team that’s 14th and can’t buy a road win at 1-4. But here’s where it gets interesting—Anthony Davis is questionable with a calf issue, and if he sits, we’re looking at a completely different Dallas roster than you think. The market’s disrespecting the Lakers here by not moving this line higher, which tells me Vegas knows something about Davis’s availability that we’re still waiting to confirm. This spread at Lakers -10.0 with a total of 231.0 screams trap game, and I’ve seen this movie before. The public sees that 5-14 record and thinks it’s free money on LA, but sharp money knows what’s up here—this number should be 12 or 13 if the Lakers were truly healthy and motivated on a Friday night.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: November 28, 2025, 10:00 ET
Venue: Crypto.com Arena
Spread: Lakers -10.0 / Mavericks +10.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Lakers -526 / Mavericks +372
Total: 231.0 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
Let me break down why this number sits at 10 and not 14. The oddsmakers are pricing in uncertainty around Anthony Davis, who’s listed as questionable with that calf injury. But here’s the kicker—look at who’s actually on this Dallas roster. The Mavericks’ top scorer this season is Anthony Davis at 20.8 PPG and 10.2 RPG, with Cooper Flagg adding 15.9 PPG and P.J. Washington chipping in 15.7 PPG. Meanwhile, the Lakers are rolling with Luka Doncic absolutely torching opponents for 35.2 PPG, 8.8 RPG, and 9.2 APG, Austin Reaves putting up 27.9 PPG and 7.0 APG, and LeBron James still doing LeBron things at 17.7 PPG and 8.7 APG. That recent recap shows Doncic dropping 43 points with 13 assists in the Lakers’ fifth straight win over the Clippers—this team is cooking right now.
The moneyline at Lakers -526 tells you everything about how the market views this game straight up. That’s an implied probability of over 84%, which means Vegas isn’t giving Dallas a prayer of winning outright. But that Mavericks +372 on the moneyline? That’s value if you believe in chaos. The spread at 10 is the sweet spot where the books can balance action—casual bettors see the Lakers’ 13-4 record and hammer LA, while contrarians see double digits and think Dallas keeps it close. I’m hammering this number before it moves, because once Davis’s status gets confirmed, we’re either seeing this jump to 12 or crash to 7.
Dallas Mavericks Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Let’s talk about what’s really going on with this Dallas squad, because that 5-14 record doesn’t tell the whole story—it actually tells exactly the story. The Mavericks are 1-4 on the road this season, which means they’re basically a guaranteed fade away from home. But here’s where it gets messy: Anthony Davis is listed as out/questionable, Dereck Lively II is definitely out for the next three games with a foot injury, and Dante Exum is done for the season after knee surgery. That’s three rotation pieces unavailable, and it’s gutting whatever depth this team thought it had.
The recent recap from Miami shows exactly what happens when this team travels—they lost 106-102 to a Heat squad that was held nearly 20 points below its season average. That means Dallas couldn’t even capitalize on Miami having an off night offensively. Cooper Flagg and P.J. Washington are being asked to carry too much weight, and while they’re both averaging solid numbers, there’s no secondary creation when your top option is compromised. This is exactly the spot where Dallas burns you if you’re expecting them to compete for 48 minutes. They’re 4-9 at home where they can at least control some variables, but on the road? They’re lost.
Los Angeles Lakers Breakdown: The Other Side
The Lakers are riding a five-game winning streak and just put up 135 points against the Clippers in their last outing. Let that sink in—135 points in a rivalry game with Luka Doncic going for 43 and LeBron adding 25. That’s not a typo in the recap; Doncic had 32 points in the first half alone on his way to his 51st career 40-point game. When your offense is humming like that, a 10-point spread against a sub-.500 team feels almost disrespectful to LA.
At 13-4 overall and 5-2 at home, the Lakers have figured out how to win at Crypto.com Arena. Austin Reaves has emerged as a legitimate second option at 27.9 PPG, which takes so much pressure off Doncic and LeBron to do everything. The only concerns here are Marcus Smart being day-to-day with a back issue and Deandre Ayton listed as probable with a knee problem. But Ayton’s probable tag means he’s likely playing, and even if Smart sits, this team has enough firepower to cover double digits against a depleted Dallas squad. The public’s all over the Lakers here, and for once, the public might actually be right. This roster is deeper, healthier, and playing with serious confidence right now.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in the first 18 minutes, and I’m not exaggerating. The Lakers at home have been jumping on inferior opponents early, and Dallas’s 1-4 road record suggests they struggle to weather early storms away from home. When you’ve got Luka Doncic capable of dropping 32 in a half and Austin Reaves averaging nearly 28 per game, the Mavericks simply don’t have the defensive personnel to slow this down—especially with Dereck Lively II out, removing their best rim protection.
The total at 231.0 is fascinating because it suggests the books expect a relatively high-scoring affair, but not the 135-point explosion we saw from LA last game. That number accounts for Dallas’s offensive limitations on the road and the possibility that the Lakers take their foot off the gas in the fourth quarter if they build a big lead. The Lakers are 8-2 on the road, which shows they can win anywhere, but at home they’re comfortable and dangerous. Dallas needs Anthony Davis—their Anthony Davis—to be available and effective just to keep this within 15, and even then, I’m not confident they have the horses to hang.
The head-to-head history isn’t provided in the data, but we don’t need it. This is a talent mismatch, a health mismatch, and a motivation mismatch. The Lakers are chasing the top seed in the West, while Dallas is just trying to avoid being a complete disaster. That’s the difference between a team at 13-4 and a team at 5-14, and it shows up in moments like this.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Lakers -10.0 (-110) for 2 units
I’m hammering the Lakers here, and I’m doing it with confidence. This line’s a joke if you think Dallas has any chance of keeping this within single digits. The Mavericks are 1-4 on the road, missing multiple key pieces, and facing a Lakers team that just scored 135 in their last home game. Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves are both playing at an elite level, and even if Anthony Davis (Dallas’s version) were healthy, it wouldn’t matter. The talent gap is too wide, the health disparity is too significant, and the situational spot favors LA in every way.
Vegas knows something we don’t, but I’m not buying it. That something is probably that the public will overload on the Lakers and they can balance their book, but sometimes the obvious play is the right play. Dallas has shown nothing on the road this season to suggest they can compete with a top-tier Western Conference team in their building. Give me the Lakers laying 10, and I’ll sleep easy knowing I’m on the right side of this one. The market’s disrespecting how good LA actually is right now, and that’s a mistake I’m happy to capitalize on. Lakers -10.0, lock it in.
