Don’t trust Stephen Curry on the road. Get Bryan Bash’s full NBA handicapping report and high-confidence prediction for the Warriors-76ers total pick and spread.
The Setup: Warriors at 76ers
The books are hanging Philadelphia -3.5 against a Warriors squad that’s been absolutely brutal on the road, and I’m here to tell you why this number is screaming value on the home side. Golden State limps into Xfinity Mobile Arena with a pathetic 4-8 road record while Philly sits at 6-6 at home – not dominant, but good enough against this Warriors team that can’t figure out how to win away from the Bay. The market’s disrespecting the 76ers here, and I’ve seen this movie before. When a team with Tyrese Maxey averaging 32.5 points per game is only laying 3.5 points at home against a .500 team that’s won just 33% of their road games, Vegas knows something we don’t, but I’m not buying it. The public’s all over Golden State getting points with Stephen Curry, but this is exactly the spot where the Warriors burn you. They just got torched by Oklahoma City 124-112 at home, and now they’re supposed to show up in Philadelphia and keep it close? I’m hammering this number before it moves.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 4, 2025, 7:00 ET
Venue: Xfinity Mobile Arena
Golden State Warriors: 11-11 (8th in Conference)
Philadelphia 76ers: 11-9 (9th in Conference)
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Warriors +3.5 (-110) | 76ers -3.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Warriors +131 | 76ers -162
- Total: 223.0 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
The books are begging you to take Golden State and the points because they see Stephen Curry’s name on the marquee and assume the Warriors are still that dynasty team. Wake up – this is a 11-11 squad that’s barely treading water, and they’re getting exposed every time they leave home. That 7-3 home record looks great until you flip it over and see 4-8 on the road. Meanwhile, Philadelphia just dismantled Washington 121-102 with Maxey dropping 35 points, including 20 in the third quarter alone. The 76ers are getting healthier at the right time, and the market’s still treating them like they’re the struggling team from early in the season.
Here’s what Vegas is banking on: casual bettors see Curry and Jimmy Butler on one side, see a short 3.5-point spread, and think they’re getting value. That’s a trap, and I’m taking the points all day long – except I’m on the other side. Sharp money knows what’s up here. The Warriors can’t defend, they can’t win on the road, and they’re walking into a building where Philly just put up 121 points against a team that actually plays defense. The line should be closer to 6 or 7, but the books need to balance action, so they’re giving you this gift-wrapped 3.5. I’m not falling for it.
Warriors Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Let’s talk about what Golden State actually is right now. Curry’s still doing Curry things at 27.9 points per game, but who’s helping him? Jimmy Butler at 19.5 PPG and Seth Curry at 14.0 PPG? That’s your supporting cast? The Warriors are dealing with injury questions too – Alex Toohey is out, and both Trayce Jackson-Davis and Quinten Post are questionable. Even at full strength, this team has shown they can’t handle business away from home.
The Oklahoma City loss tells you everything you need to know about where this team is mentally. They gave up 124 points at home to a Thunder team that picked them apart in the fourth quarter. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander dropped 38 on them, and the Warriors had no answer. Now they’re supposed to travel cross-country and compete against a 76ers team that’s finding its rhythm? The road splits don’t lie – when Golden State leaves the Bay Area, they turn into a completely different team. That 4-8 road record isn’t a fluke; it’s who they are.
76ers Breakdown: The Other Side
Philadelphia is starting to look like the team everyone expected at the start of the season. Tyrese Maxey is playing out of his mind at 32.5 PPG with 7.5 assists – that’s legitimate superstar production. Joel Embiid is averaging 19.4 points and 5.3 rebounds, and even though those aren’t his typical monster numbers, he’s doing enough to make this offense dangerous. Quentin Grimes adds 17.0 PPG when healthy, though he’s questionable for this one.
The 76ers just showed what they’re capable of against Washington. Maxey went nuclear in the third quarter with 20 points, and Andre Drummond controlled the glass with a double-double. That 121-102 beatdown wasn’t a struggle – it was a statement. Philly is 11-9 overall and sitting right in the playoff mix at 9th in the conference. The injury report shows Kelly Oubre Jr. is out, and both Grimes and Paul George are questionable, but even without full strength, this team has enough firepower to handle a Warriors squad that can’t defend on the road.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in two places: the paint and the free-throw line. The 76ers have the size advantage with Embiid and Drummond controlling the interior, while the Warriors are potentially without Jackson-Davis and Post, leaving them even thinner in the frontcourt. Golden State lives and dies by the three-point line, but when Curry’s not hitting at an elite clip, this offense stalls out. The books set this total at 223.0, which tells you they’re expecting both teams to score, but I’m more interested in the spread.
The home/road splits are the story of this game. Golden State is 7-3 at home and 4-8 on the road – that’s a massive difference in performance level. Philadelphia is 6-6 at home, which isn’t dominant, but it’s good enough against a Warriors team that consistently underperforms away from San Francisco. The pace and efficiency numbers favor Philly in this spot. Maxey’s ability to get to the rim and draw fouls, combined with Embiid’s presence in the post, gives the 76ers multiple ways to attack a Warriors defense that gave up 124 to OKC just days ago.
I’ve seen this movie before. Road Warriors team with a big name, short spread, casual bettors thinking they’re getting value. Then the home team comes out, establishes the paint, gets to the line, and pulls away in the second half. That’s exactly what’s happening Thursday night.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m laying the 3.5 points with Philadelphia and sleeping like a baby. This is exactly the spot where the Warriors burn you. They can’t win on the road, they can’t defend, and they’re walking into a building where Maxey just dropped 35 and is playing the best basketball of his career. The -3.5 spread is a gift, and I’m hammering this number before it moves to 5 or 6 where it belongs.
The play: Philadelphia 76ers -3.5 (-110) for 2 units. Confidence level: 8/10. The market’s disrespecting Philly here, and I’m taking advantage. Golden State’s 4-8 road record tells you everything you need to know – they’re frauds away from home, and Thursday night in Philly, they’re getting exposed again. Sharp money knows what’s up here, and I’m riding with the home team that actually shows up when the lights come on. Lots of value – let’s cash!
