Chicago at Green Bay Play
It’s going to be tough sledding for me in NFL Week 14. I have some good spots to choose from, but not really loving any of them.
I’ll share them with you here, along with my handicapping thought process.
The first game under consideration is a play AGAINST the New York Jets, who have covered five straight games in a row.
The books don’t stay in business by paying people, and they know Joe Public loves to jump on a winning streak.
This play AGAINST spot is already 2-0 this year, with New England losing to Atlanta when the Patriots had won five straight ATS, and Seattle failing to cover at Tennessee two weeks ago.
This play was also 6-2 ATS last season.
So, combined last season and this season, it’s 8-2, 80%.
Looks like a pretty solid spot to play, a no-brainer, right?
But . . . (you knew there was going to be a “but” coming, right?)
Not ONE of those spots was a Rd Favorite.
The Jets opponent this week is the Miami Dolphins.
The 5-7 Miami Dolphins.
The no-chance-at-all-to-make-the-playoffs Dolphins.
The 1-4 SU on the Rd Miami Dolphins, who are actually GIVING points this week.
Do you want to lay points with this Miami team, on the Rd? I don’t.
Next up, I have three Rd teams that my WF1 model says should be the Favorite: Tennessee, Cincinnati, and Chicago.
The record for Fading this spot is just 22-18, slightly profitable at 55%. But I have a subcategory for the play that is 0-6 this season, and Cincinnati and Chicago qualify.
The play ON teams would be Buffalo at 1:00 p.m. EST, and Green Bay at 4:00 p.m. EST.
My first thought is to do an “IF” play — buy the morning game; if it wins, bank it, if it loses, try to get my money back on the later start.
But my second thought is — is the early game, Cin/Buf, the stronger play?
So I dug deeper.
Cin is 4-8 SU, 5-7 ATS.
On the Rd they’re 2-4 both SU and ATS.
Looks good for a Buffalo bet, eh?
Yes, as you expected, there’s another “but” coming.
But . . . Joe Burrows is back.
Last week, in his first start since coming back from being injured, the Bengals destroyed the Ravens 32-14.
And the game was on the Rd, just like this week when they’re playing at Buffalo.
Head to Head, Burrow is 2-1 against Allen.
And he gets Higgins back this week too, which is only going to help the Cincinnati cause.
But the factor that has me most concerned is this — at 4-8 the Bengals have no shot at a wild card spot, but they’re only two games out of first place in their division. They’ll need to win out the rest of the schedule and get a little help.
A win in this one keeps their playoff hopes alive, plus, adding a little extra incentive, they get to play a spoiler role by knocking Buffalo further out of any chance at winning their division.
I’m not liking the first spot using Buffalo.
The Second Spot – Chicago at Green Bay
The second spot is a play AGAINST Chicago.
The line is GB -6′, which means I need a Packer win by a TD or more to bank my bet.
The Bears are 9-3 SU.
In their three L’s they lost by 3, 31, and 14, an average of 18 PPG.
On the other side of the ball we have Green Bay at 8-3 SU. In their wins, they would have covered a -6′ spread in seven of eight games, making this the stronger of the two WF1 spots to play.
Aside from the numbers, I think Chicago’s playing over their head. I keep waiting for the game where quarterback Caleb Williams turns back into a pumpkin, and I think this is the one.
Not loving the play, but I like it better than the other two options I’m looking at.
When to Buy Recommendation
The line opened at GB -6′ and it’s still sitting there.
The books are not going to want to go to -7 because they’ll get flooded with Chicago money.
I doubt we can shake the hook, but since I’m reasonably sure it’s not going to move any higher against me, there’s no reason to buy it today.
My play: GB (wait to buy)
Recap
0-1
Record: 10-6
Review
I had Over 35 in SF/Cle.
The game landed on 34.
I lost by one point because Nepo Baby, Would-be Boy Genius Shanahan, went for two points in the fourth quarter when there was absolutely no reason to, costing me the opportunity to get a Push.
