The Dallas Mavericks might be struggling in the standings, but they’ve been a different animal at home. As they host Joel Embiid and the Sixers tonight, finding the best bet requires a look at how rookie sensation Cooper Flagg matches up against Philadelphia’s veteran core.
The Setup: 76ers at Mavericks
The 76ers are laying a point on the road in Dallas on New Year’s Day, and on the surface, this number makes sense. Philadelphia sits at 17-14 with the better record, while the Mavericks are struggling at 12-22 and just 9-9 at home. But here’s the thing — when you’re getting a road favorite at just a single point, the market is telling you something about how tight this matchup actually projects. Let me walk you through why this line exists and why I’m not convinced Philadelphia’s edge is as clean as that record differential suggests.
The 76ers are coming off an overtime thriller in Memphis where Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid combined for 68 points, and Embiid is probable for this one despite injury maintenance concerns. Dallas just dropped a close one in Portland, 125-122, continuing their road struggles. But we’re not playing this game on the road for Dallas — we’re at American Airlines Center where they’ve been .500 all season. That single point spread tells me the market sees two teams closer in quality than their records indicate, and once you dig into the matchup data, I understand why.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: January 1, 2026, 8:30 ET
Venue: American Airlines Center
Spread: Philadelphia 76ers -1.0 (-110) | Dallas Mavericks +1.0 (-110)
Moneyline: 76ers -116 | Mavericks -105
Total: 231.0 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
A one-point road spread is essentially a pick’em with a slight nod to the better team, and that’s exactly what we’re getting here. Philadelphia’s 17-14 record gives them credibility, but their 8-6 road mark isn’t dominant. Meanwhile, Dallas at 12-22 looks like a team in disarray, but that 9-9 home split matters. The market isn’t giving Philadelphia the typical 2.5 to 3-point bump you’d expect for a quality road favorite because the Mavericks have shown they can compete at home.
The total of 231.0 is telling us the oddsmakers expect a high-possession game with offensive firepower on both sides. Tyrese Maxey is averaging 30.8 points per game this season — that’s elite scoring volume — and Joel Embiid, even in a reduced role at 22.6 PPG, remains a matchup problem. On the Dallas side, Anthony Davis is putting up 20.5 PPG and 10.9 RPG, while rookie Cooper Flagg is contributing 19.4 PPG. That’s not a team without weapons, even if their record suggests otherwise.
The main reason this line sits at just one point is injury context and depth concerns. Kelly Oubre Jr. is out for Philadelphia, removing 16.8 PPG from their rotation. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this game tilts. Dallas is missing Kyrie Irving indefinitely and lost Dereck Lively II to foot surgery, but they’ve been playing without those guys for weeks. Philadelphia is adjusting on the fly to Oubre’s absence, and that matters in a tight road spot.
76ers Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Philadelphia’s offense runs through Tyrese Maxey, and at 30.8 PPG with 7.1 APG, he’s been one of the most productive guards in the league this season. The concern is what happens when Maxey has an off night or faces defensive pressure — the 76ers don’t have a deep bench to compensate, especially with Oubre out. Joel Embiid’s probable status is critical here. At 22.6 PPG and 6.7 RPG, he’s not carrying the same load as in previous seasons, but his presence changes how defenses have to scheme. If Embiid is compromised or limited, Philadelphia’s margin for error shrinks considerably.
The 76ers are 8-6 on the road, which is respectable but not dominant. They just played an overtime game in Memphis that required 34 points from both Maxey and Embiid to escape with a win. That’s a lot of minutes and usage for two guys who now have to turn around and deliver again in Dallas. I keep coming back to this efficiency gap — without Oubre’s 16.8 PPG, Philadelphia needs role players to step up, and that’s not something you can bank on in a road environment.
Defensively, the 76ers have been inconsistent. They allowed 136 points to Memphis in overtime, and while some of that is game flow, it speaks to their vulnerability when teams can push pace and create transition opportunities. Dallas isn’t a great offensive team overall, but at home with Anthony Davis and Cooper Flagg, they have enough firepower to exploit defensive lapses.
Mavericks Breakdown: The Other Side
Dallas is 12-22, but that record is heavily skewed by their 3-12 road performance. At home, they’re 9-9 — not great, but competitive. Anthony Davis has been their most consistent player at 20.5 PPG and 10.9 RPG, giving them an interior presence that can challenge Embiid, especially if Embiid isn’t at full strength. Cooper Flagg at 19.4 PPG and 6.4 RPG has been a revelation as a rookie, providing scoring and playmaking that keeps Dallas in games they have no business being in.
P.J. Washington adds 15.4 PPG and 7.8 RPG, giving the Mavericks a solid third option. The problem for Dallas has been consistency and depth. Without Kyrie Irving, they lack a true closer in tight games, and without Dereck Lively II, their interior defense has suffered. But here’s the thing — they’ve been playing without those guys for weeks now, so this is who they are. The market has adjusted to that reality, and the fact that they’re getting just a single point at home tells you the oddsmakers don’t see a massive talent gap.
The Mavericks just lost a close one in Portland, 125-122, where they were competitive throughout. That game showed they can score in the mid-120s, which aligns with the 231.0 total in this matchup. If Dallas can control pace and get Anthony Davis involved early, they have the pieces to keep this game within a possession or two throughout.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This matchup comes down to two factors: Joel Embiid’s availability and effectiveness, and whether Philadelphia can compensate for Kelly Oubre Jr.’s absence. If Embiid is truly probable and plays his usual minutes, the 76ers have the edge. But if he’s limited or playing through discomfort, Dallas has the interior presence with Anthony Davis to exploit that. When you do the math over 96 possessions, a one-point margin requires near-perfect execution from the road favorite, and I’m not sure Philadelphia has the depth to deliver that consistently.
The total of 231.0 suggests a pace in the mid-90s with both teams scoring in the 115-116 range. That feels right given the offensive talent on both sides. Tyrese Maxey at 30.8 PPG is going to get his, but Dallas can counter with Davis and Flagg combining for 40. The question is whether Philadelphia’s role players — without Oubre — can provide enough secondary scoring to create separation.
I keep coming back to this efficiency gap. Philadelphia is the better team on paper, but this matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests. Dallas at home, with Anthony Davis controlling the paint and Cooper Flagg providing perimeter scoring, has the tools to keep this within a single possession. The 76ers just played overtime in Memphis, and now they’re on the road again with key rotation pieces missing or questionable. That’s not a recipe for covering a road spread, even at just one point.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking Dallas Mavericks +1.0 (-110) for 1.5 units. Here’s why: Philadelphia is the better team, but they’re not 1-point-on-the-road better in this specific spot. Joel Embiid is probable but dealing with injury maintenance, Kelly Oubre Jr. is out, and the 76ers just played overtime in Memphis. Dallas is 9-9 at home, Anthony Davis is averaging a double-double, and Cooper Flagg gives them legitimate scoring punch. When you factor in the scheduling spot and the depth concerns for Philadelphia, that single point feels like value on the home dog.
The main risk here is Embiid being fully healthy and dominating the interior, but even then, I’m not sure Philadelphia has enough around him to pull away. This game projects as a possession-by-possession battle, and in that scenario, I’ll take the point with the home team. Dallas +1.0 is the play.
