Dallas is currently struggling through a brutal 4-13 road stretch and must now navigate life without Anthony Davis and P.J. Washington. Our analytical preview breaks down why Chicago’s interior advantage makes the Bulls our preferred ATS pick.
The Setup: Dallas Mavericks at Chicago Bulls
The Bulls are laying 3 points at home against a Dallas team that’s limping in at 14-24, and on the surface, this number makes sense. Chicago sits at 17-20, they’re at the United Center, and they’re catching a Mavericks squad that just dropped a tight one in Utah and is dealing with some serious roster limitations. But here’s the thing — once you dig into what these teams actually look like right now, with the injuries they’re managing and how this matchup plays out over 48 minutes, that 3-point cushion starts to feel generous to Dallas.
Let me walk you through why this line exists and why I’m leaning toward Chicago covering this number at home on Saturday night. The Mavericks are 4-13 on the road this season. That’s not just bad — that’s a team that fundamentally struggles away from home. Meanwhile, the Bulls are 10-9 at the United Center, and while they’re not world-beaters, they’ve been competent enough in their building to handle business against teams they should beat. This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests when you factor in personnel and pace.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Dallas Mavericks at Chicago Bulls
Date: January 10, 2026
Time: 8:00 ET
Venue: United Center
Current Spread: Chicago Bulls -3.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Bulls -149 / Mavericks +121
Total: 233.0 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market landed on Bulls -3 because Chicago has the better record, home court, and — on paper — the healthier roster situation. Dallas is without P.J. Washington for a third straight game, and they’re obviously still playing without Kyrie Irving, who tore his ACL back in March and won’t return until sometime around the All-Star break at the earliest. That’s two rotation pieces that would significantly alter how this team operates offensively.
But the Bulls aren’t exactly at full strength either. Josh Giddey — their best playmaker at 19.2 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 9.0 assists per game — is out with a hamstring strain and expected to miss at least a few weeks. That’s a massive blow to Chicago’s offensive flow. Without Giddey running the show, the Bulls lose their primary creator and have to lean harder on Coby White and Nikola Vucevic to generate offense in halfcourt sets.
So why only 3 points? Because the market respects that Dallas still has Anthony Davis, who’s averaging 20.4 points and 11.1 boards, and Cooper Flagg, who’s been a revelation at 19.1 points and 6.6 rebounds per game. Those two give the Mavericks enough offensive firepower to stay competitive, even on the road. But I keep coming back to this efficiency gap — Dallas is 4-13 away from home, and that’s not just variance. That’s a team that can’t execute consistently in hostile environments.
Dallas Mavericks Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Mavericks are 14-24, sitting 12th in the Western Conference, and they’ve been significantly worse on the road than at home. Their 4-13 road mark tells you everything you need to know about how this team travels. Anthony Davis is doing his part — 20.4 points and 11.1 rebounds per game — but he’s being asked to do too much without Irving and now without Washington’s floor spacing and secondary playmaking.
Cooper Flagg has been a bright spot, averaging 19.1 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.3 assists. He’s giving Dallas a legitimate second scoring option and some creation off the bounce. But here’s the problem: when you lose Washington, who was chipping in 14.7 points and 7.4 boards, you lose depth and versatility. The Mavericks are thinner in their rotation, and that matters over 48 minutes against a Bulls team that can throw bodies at you.
Dallas just played in Utah on Thursday night, dropping a 116-114 decision where Lauri Markkanen went off for 33. That’s a tough turnaround — travel from Salt Lake City to Chicago for a Saturday night game. The Mavericks aren’t built to grind out back-to-back road spots right now, not with this roster configuration.
Chicago Bulls Breakdown: The Other Side
The Bulls are 17-20 and sitting 10th in the East, but they’re 10-9 at home, which means they’ve been solid enough in their building. Without Josh Giddey, though, they’re going to need Coby White to step up as the primary ball-handler. White’s averaging 18.4 points and 4.6 assists, and he’s capable of running the show, but he’s not the same kind of distributor that Giddey is.
Nikola Vucevic becomes even more critical in this matchup. He’s putting up 16.5 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per game, and against a Dallas frontcourt that’s already dealing with depth issues after losing Dereck Lively II for the season, Vucevic should have room to operate. The Bulls can run their offense through him in the post and use him as a hub in pick-and-pop situations.
Chicago just played in Detroit on Wednesday and lost 108-93, but that was a short-handed Pistons team that got a career night from Isaiah Stewart. The Bulls will have had two full days of rest before this one, and they’ll be motivated to bounce back at home. That’s not just a stat — that’s how this game tilts in terms of urgency and preparation.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in the halfcourt. Dallas doesn’t have the depth to push pace consistently, especially on the second night of a road back-to-back. The Bulls, even without Giddey, can control tempo at home and force the Mavericks into grinding possessions where Chicago’s size advantage with Vucevic becomes a factor.
The key matchup is Vucevic against Dallas’s interior defense. With Lively out for the season and Washington unavailable, the Mavericks are relying on Daniel Gafford and Dwight Powell behind Anthony Davis. That’s not a rotation built to contain a skilled big like Vucevic over 35-plus minutes. When you do the math over 95-100 possessions, Chicago should be able to generate enough quality looks in the paint to build and maintain a lead.
Defensively, the Bulls need to make life difficult for Davis and Flagg. If they can force Dallas into contested jumpers and limit second-chance opportunities, the Mavericks don’t have enough secondary scoring to keep pace. White and Ayo Dosunmu — who figures to see more minutes with Giddey out — need to stay disciplined on the perimeter and not give up easy transition buckets.
The main risk here is Chicago’s own offensive inconsistency without Giddey. If White struggles to create and Vucevic gets into foul trouble early, the Bulls could find themselves in a grind-it-out game where 3 points feels like a lot. But I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there for Dallas.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Chicago Bulls -3.0 (-110) | 2 Units
I’m laying the 3 with Chicago at home. The Mavericks are 4-13 on the road, they’re playing the second leg of a back-to-back after traveling from Utah, and they’re without two key rotation pieces in Washington and Irving. The Bulls have their own injury issues with Giddey out, but they’re at home, they’ve had two days of rest, and they have the frontcourt advantage with Vucevic against a thin Dallas interior.
Once you factor in pace, rest, and matchup dynamics, Chicago should be able to control this game in the halfcourt and build enough of a cushion to cover 3 points. The main risk is the Bulls’ own offensive limitations without their primary playmaker, but I trust Vucevic and White to generate enough at home against a Dallas team that’s been consistently poor away from home all season.
This line feels soft. I’m taking the Bulls to cover at the United Center on Saturday night.
