Philadelphia heads to Toronto looking for their fifth straight road win, but Joel Embiid’s knee management remains the central variable for our Sunday ATS pick.
The Setup: 76ers at Raptors
The 76ers are laying 4.5 points in Toronto on Sunday night, and on the surface, this number makes sense. Philadelphia comes in at 21-15, riding momentum after winning four of their last five, while the Raptors sit at 23-16 but are dealing with a brutal injury situation. Here’s the thing — this line exists because the market expects Joel Embiid to play, and that assumption is doing a lot of heavy lifting. Embiid is listed as questionable with a left knee injury, and the reporting suggests he’ll likely sit one of the back-to-back games in Toronto (Sunday and Monday). If he sits Sunday, this entire number collapses. But even if he plays, I keep coming back to the efficiency gap and whether Philadelphia can cover 4.5 on the road against a Raptors team that, despite the injuries, still has enough offensive firepower to keep this close. Let me walk you through why this line exists and where I see the value.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors
Date: January 11, 2026
Time: 6:00 ET
Venue: Scotiabank Arena
Current Betting Lines (Bovada):
- Spread: Philadelphia 76ers -4.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Philadelphia 76ers -180 | Toronto Raptors +155
- Total: 223.5 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
Philadelphia is getting 4.5 points on the road primarily because of their recent form and the assumption that their Big Three will be available. The 76ers just dismantled Washington 131-110 with all five starters in double figures — Joel Embiid dropped 28, Paul George added 23, and Tyrese Maxey contributed 22 points with eight assists. That’s the version of Philadelphia that justifies laying points anywhere. But once you dig into the matchup data, the injury situation on both sides creates massive uncertainty. Toronto is without Jakob Poeltl, their starting center, and Chucky Hepburn, who’s been nearly averaging a double-double with 12.8 points and 9.2 assists across 11 games. Brandon Ingram is questionable after missing Friday’s loss to Boston. That’s a huge blow — Ingram has been averaging 22.2 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 3.5 assists since the beginning of December. If Ingram sits, Toronto’s offensive ceiling drops significantly. The market is pricing in Philadelphia’s talent advantage, but it’s also assuming Embiid plays. If he doesn’t, Andre Drummond slides into the starting five, and while Drummond can rebound and protect the rim, he doesn’t provide the same offensive gravity. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this game tilts.
76ers Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Philadelphia’s offense runs through three elite scorers. Tyrese Maxey is having a career year, averaging 30.7 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 6.9 assists. He’s the engine that keeps this team moving, especially when Embiid’s availability is uncertain. Joel Embiid, when healthy, is averaging 23.5 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 3.3 assists, and over his last six games, he’s been even better — 27.3 points, 8.3 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 1.2 blocks over 33.7 minutes per game. That’s dominant two-way production. VJ Edgecombe adds another dimension with 16.1 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 4.3 assists, giving Philadelphia scoring depth and playmaking versatility. The 76ers are 11-6 on the road, which is solid but not dominant. They’re better away from home than at home this season (10-9), which tells you they can handle hostile environments. The main risk here is Embiid’s status. If he sits, Philadelphia loses their best interior presence on both ends, and suddenly this matchup narrows considerably. Even with Embiid, the 76ers need to execute in the halfcourt against a Raptors defense that can be scrappy when healthy.
Raptors Breakdown: The Other Side
Toronto’s offense is built around three versatile scorers who can all create. Brandon Ingram leads the way at 21.8 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 3.6 assists, but his questionable status is a massive variable. RJ Barrett is averaging 19.6 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 3.7 assists, and Scottie Barnes contributes 19.1 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 5.2 assists. That’s three guys who can all handle, pass, and score in multiple ways. The problem is depth and interior presence. With Jakob Poeltl out, Sandro Mamukelashvili and Collin Murray-Boyles are handling center minutes, and that’s a tough matchup against Embiid or even Drummond. Chucky Hepburn’s absence hurts the playmaking and perimeter defense — he’s been averaging 2.4 steals per game along with his near double-double production. Toronto is 12-8 at home, which is respectable but not intimidating. They just lost to Boston 125-117 on Friday, and while they hung around, they couldn’t match the Celtics’ firepower. If Ingram and Poeltl are both out, Toronto’s ceiling is limited, and Philadelphia’s talent advantage becomes overwhelming.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in the paint and at the free-throw line. If Embiid plays, he should dominate against Toronto’s makeshift frontcourt. Mamukelashvili and Murray-Boyles are serviceable, but neither can handle Embiid’s combination of size, skill, and physicality. When you do the math over 96 possessions, Embiid’s ability to generate high-percentage looks and draw fouls creates a scoring margin that’s difficult for Toronto to overcome. But if Embiid sits, the dynamic shifts dramatically. Drummond can rebound and protect the rim, but he doesn’t command double teams or create the same offensive gravity. That allows Toronto’s defense to stay home on shooters and make Philadelphia work harder for every bucket. The other key factor is Toronto’s perimeter scoring. If Ingram plays, he gives the Raptors a legitimate go-to scorer who can attack mismatches and create for others. Barrett and Barnes are both capable, but neither has Ingram’s shot creation ability. This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests if both teams are compromised by injuries. Philadelphia’s road record (11-6) shows they can win away from home, but covering 4.5 requires execution and health. I keep coming back to the uncertainty around Embiid and Ingram — both are game-changers, and both are questionable.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m staying off the spread until we get clarity on Embiid and Ingram. If both play, Philadelphia -4.5 has value because the talent gap is real and the 76ers have been executing at a high level. But if Embiid sits, this line moves significantly, and I’d look at Toronto +4.5 or even the moneyline. The smarter play here is the total Under 223.5. Both teams are dealing with key injuries that limit offensive depth and efficiency. Toronto without Poeltl and potentially Ingram struggles to generate consistent offense, and Philadelphia without Embiid loses their most dominant interior scorer. Even if both stars play, this is a back-to-back situation for the 76ers (they play again Monday in Toronto), and fatigue could impact shooting and pace. I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there. The main risk here is a shootout if both offenses get hot from three, but with the injuries and situational factors, I’m betting on a grind-it-out game that stays under the number. Play: Under 223.5 (-110) for 1.5 units.
