RBD walks through his Get Back Day handicapping process, breaking down back-to-back betting trends and total-based adjustments.
Today is Get Back Day.
I’ll explain.
When I looked at my daily calendar this morning I saw a reminder.
It said, “Fade the Kings, see your play log dated Monday, January 12th.”
Here’s an excerpt from the article I wrote that morning, regarding a bet I made against the Sacramento Kings:
“They played last night, a very UNfortunate situation for them.
In game two of B2B’s (Back to Back) Sacramento is 1-4 SU and ATS.
But here’s where it gets really ugly for them — when playing in game two of B2B’s they’re surrendering 129 PPG.
That’s 8 points higher than their season average.
And they’re losing by an average of 27.6 PPG.
Yes, they lose by approximately 28 PPG.
Clearly this is not a team that you want to buy when they played the night before.”
End of excerpt.
(Correction. Sacramento was 1-5 SU going into that Laker game, not 1-4.)
When the Angle Fails
The Lakers failed to show up that night.
On offense, they only hit 22% of their three-pointers.
On defense, they allowed the Kings to hit 65% of their three-pointers.
65%!!!
Those two stats were the difference in a game that ended up with the Lakers not only failing to cover the spread, but losing straight up by double digits.
So I made a note on my calendar to get that lost unit back the next time the King’s find themselves in game 2 of B2B’s.
And that’s what they’re in tonight.
The Snag
But my Get Back play hits a snag.
While handicapping the game I see that their opponent, Toronto, also played last night.
And . . .
The Raptors are 2-6 SU when playing in game two of B2B’s.
Even uglier – they’re 0-4 SU when the second game is on the Rd, like tonight.
The play is eliminated.
I can’t bet against a 2-5 team using an 0-4 team.
Looking at the Total
But maybe I can get a play on the total in this one, because while looking over Toronto’s schedule I noticed that of the eight times the Raptors have been in game two of B2B’s, their Ov/Un record is 1-7.
That’s a VERY strong play for the Under.
Now I just need to check the numbers on Sacramento in game two’s and hope I don’t see a lot of Overs.
I go back to my database, and my hopes are dashed.
Sacramento in game 2 has an Ov/Un record of 5-2.
This eliminates my play on the Under for the game.
Adjusting the Play
But I’m going to put some money on a team total Under.
Ten of Toronto’s last 13 games on the Rd have stayed Under the total.
When they’re on the road and in game two of B2B’s their PPG average on offense goes down to just 99.
That’s 15 points fewer than their regular PPG.
And 16 points fewer than the number the books of hung on this one tonight.
Tor Team Total Un 115′
Record: 1-1
