Denver heads into Milwaukee with a 18-7 road record, the league’s best. Our prediction centers on whether Jamal Murray can carry the load without Nikola Jokic against a Bucks team that is currently #1 in 3-point efficiency but struggling with chemistry.
The Setup: Denver Nuggets at Milwaukee Bucks
The Milwaukee Bucks are laying 6.0 points at home against a Denver Nuggets squad that’s playing without their MVP engine. This line sits right where you’d expect when you factor in Nikola Jokic’s absence—the Nuggets are getting points on the road despite carrying a better record (30-15) than Milwaukee (18-25). But here’s the thing: Denver just avoided a three-game skid by beating Washington behind Peyton Watson’s career-high 35 points, while Milwaukee got steamrolled 122-102 by Oklahoma City at home. The Bucks are favored because they’re at Fiserv Forum and the Nuggets are missing the best player on the planet, but the underlying efficiency numbers and rotation depth make this number worth a closer look. Jamal Murray dropped 24 in that Washington win, and this Denver team has been legitimately better on the road (18-7) than at home (12-8) all season. The market is asking you to lay six with a struggling home team against a road warrior group that just found a way to win shorthanded.
Game Info & Betting Lines
When: Friday, January 23, 2026, 9:30 ET
Where: Fiserv Forum
Watch: Prime Video
Current Odds (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Nuggets +6.0 (-110) | Bucks -6.0 (-110)
- Moneyline: Nuggets +185 | Bucks -233
- Total: 221.5 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
Six points reflects the market’s calculation of Jokic’s absence plus home-court advantage for Milwaukee. Jokic is averaging 29.6 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 11.0 assists—those are historically dominant numbers that don’t get replaced by committee. The Bucks counter with Giannis Antetokounmpo’s 28.2 points and 9.9 boards, and they’re getting Myles Turner back from a one-game absence, which stabilizes their interior presence. The total at 221.5 accounts for Denver’s offensive efficiency taking a hit without their primary creator and Milwaukee’s defensive inconsistency this season.
But the line also tells you something else: the market isn’t giving Milwaukee much respect at home. A 9-11 home record will do that. The Bucks just got boat-raced by Oklahoma City in this building, and their 18-25 overall record screams mediocrity. Meanwhile, Denver’s 18-7 road split is one of the best in the league, and they just proved in Washington they can win without Jokic when Murray and the supporting cast step up. The number sits at six because the market knows Milwaukee has been inconsistent, even with Giannis healthy and producing. This isn’t a double-digit spread because the Bucks haven’t earned that kind of trust.
Denver Nuggets Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Without Jokic, this offense runs through Murray’s 26.0 points and 7.3 assists per game. He’s the primary ball-handler and shot creator now, and he showed against Washington he can carry that load—24 points on a night when Watson went nuclear. Aaron Gordon adds 17.9 points and 6.2 boards, giving Denver a secondary scorer who can attack mismatches and finish around the rim. The Nuggets also have Cameron Johnson out with a bone bruise, which thins their wing depth even further.
The real question is whether Denver can generate enough efficient offense without Jokic’s gravity and playmaking. He’s the hub that makes everything flow—the screening, the cutting, the ball movement. Watson’s 35-point explosion was a career outlier, not something you project going forward. Denver’s road success this season has largely come with Jokic orchestrating, so this is a legitimate test of their depth and Murray’s ability to shoulder a heavier creation burden. They avoided the three-game losing streak, but beating a rebuilding Wizards team is different from covering six points against Giannis in Milwaukee.
Milwaukee Bucks Breakdown: The Other Side
Giannis remains the engine, but the supporting cast has been wildly inconsistent. Kevin Porter Jr. is averaging 16.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 7.4 assists, but he’s out with an oblique injury. Ryan Rollins chips in 16.0 points and 5.5 assists, but this roster lacks the depth and two-way consistency of a legitimate contender. Turner being probable is significant—his rim protection and spacing matter—but one player returning doesn’t fix the structural issues that have Milwaukee sitting 11th in the Eastern Conference.
The Bucks’ 9-11 home record is alarming. They should be defending Fiserv Forum better than this, especially with Giannis healthy and producing at an elite level. The 122-102 drubbing by Oklahoma City exposed their defensive rotations and transition defense. When teams push pace and move the ball, Milwaukee struggles to contain. Denver won’t have Jokic to punish them in the halfcourt, but Murray can still create in transition and Aaron Gordon can exploit mismatches. The question is whether Milwaukee’s home-court advantage means anything when they’ve been this mediocre in their own building all season.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This comes down to offensive creation and defensive discipline. Denver loses Jokic’s 11.0 assists per game, which means Murray has to generate more shots for others while maintaining his own scoring efficiency. The Nuggets’ ball movement will be tested—can they create quality looks without their primary facilitator? Milwaukee’s defensive inconsistency gives Denver hope, but the Bucks can load up on Murray knowing he’s the only elite creator on the floor.
On the other side, Giannis should dominate inside without Jokic to slow him down. Denver’s interior defense takes a massive hit when you remove a 12.2-rebound presence who alters shots and controls the paint. Turner’s return helps Milwaukee’s spacing and rim protection, and if he plays, the Bucks have a legitimate advantage in the frontcourt. The pace will matter—Denver wants to keep this controlled and execute in the halfcourt, while Milwaukee benefits from pushing tempo and attacking Denver’s thinner rotation.
The total at 221.5 feels about right. Denver’s offense loses its most efficient player, and Milwaukee’s defense should be able to load up on Murray. But the Bucks’ own offensive inconsistency and Denver’s ability to grind possessions could keep this lower-scoring than expected. Six points is a lot to lay with a team that’s 9-11 at home, but it’s also asking a Jokic-less Denver squad to stay within a possession on the road.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking Denver +6.0 for 2 units. The Nuggets have been the better road team all season, and Milwaukee hasn’t earned the right to be laying this many points at home. Denver just showed they can win without Jokic, and Murray is capable of keeping this within a possession against a Bucks team that got destroyed by Oklahoma City in this same building. The 18-7 road record tells you this team knows how to compete away from home, and six points is too many for a Milwaukee squad that’s been inconsistent all year.
The risk is obvious—Giannis can take over inside without Jokic to match him, and Denver’s offensive creation is limited. But the Bucks’ 9-11 home mark and their defensive lapses give Denver a path to staying competitive. This number would be 8 or 9 if Milwaukee had been defending home court properly. They haven’t, and that’s the edge.
BASH’S BEST BET: Nuggets +6.0 for 2 units.
