The Charlotte Hornets look to build on a historic blowout win as they travel to face the Memphis Grizzlies at FedExForum. In our latest NBA Picks, we break down Charlotte’s #3-ranked three-point volume (15.2 makes per game) and how it exploits a Grizzlies perimeter defense missing the elite wingspan of Ja Morant.
The Setup: Charlotte Hornets at Memphis Grizzlies
Charlotte laying 2.5 points on the road in Memphis tells you everything about where these franchises sit right now. The Hornets are 10-15 away from home, the Grizzlies are 9-13 at FedExForum, and neither team is inspiring confidence at the betting window. But the number makes sense when you consider Memphis is missing Ja Morant for at least three more weeks with an elbow injury, while Charlotte just put up 130 points and led by 50 against Philadelphia. Brandon Miller dropped 30 in that blowout, and the Hornets had all five starters in double figures. Memphis, meanwhile, got worked by Houston 108-99 despite Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun combining for 66 points. The Grizzlies trailed by a point entering the fourth and got outscored 21-9 over the next seven minutes. That’s the kind of late-game execution gap that shows up when your primary ball-handler is sidelined indefinitely.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Charlotte Hornets at Memphis Grizzlies
Date: Wednesday, January 28, 2026
Time: 8:00 ET
Venue: FedExForum
TV: FanDuel SN SE, NBA League Pass
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Charlotte Hornets -2.5 (-110) | Memphis Grizzlies +2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Charlotte Hornets -135 | Memphis Grizzlies +111
- Total: Over 230.5 (-110) | Under 230.5 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
The market is pricing in the obvious: Charlotte has LaMelo Ball running the offense, Memphis doesn’t have Morant. That’s the foundational reality driving this spread. The Hornets sit at 19-28 overall, the Grizzlies at 18-26. Both teams are outside the playoff picture in their respective conferences—Charlotte 11th in the East, Memphis 12th in the West. But the gap in available talent right now favors the visitors. Ball is averaging 19.1 points and 7.6 assists, Miller is putting up 20.4 points per game, and rookie Kon Knueppel has emerged as a legitimate third scoring option at 18.7 points per contest. Memphis counters with Jaren Jackson Jr. at 18.9 points and Santi Aldama at 14.0, but without Morant’s 19.5 points and 8.1 assists, the offensive creation burden shifts to players who aren’t natural initiators.
The total at 230.5 reflects two teams that can score but struggle to defend consistently. Neither squad has shown the ability to grind out low-possession games, and with both sitting near the bottom of their conferences, there’s little incentive to slow the pace. The number accounts for transition opportunities and limited halfcourt execution, especially for Memphis without their primary pick-and-roll creator. This isn’t a game where either defense is going to dictate tempo or force difficult shots for extended stretches.
Charlotte Hornets Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Hornets just demolished Philadelphia by 37 points, and that performance wasn’t an outlier in terms of offensive firepower—it was an outlier in defensive effort. Charlotte’s ability to score has never been the question. Miller is shooting efficiently at 20.4 points per game, Ball is orchestrating the offense with 7.6 assists, and Knueppel has given them a third perimeter threat who can create his own shot. The problem is their 9-13 home record and 10-15 road mark both suggest a team that can’t string together consistent performances on either end.
The loss of Mason Plumlee to a groin injury that required surgery removes a veteran presence in the frontcourt, but Moussa Diabate stepped up with 12 points against the Sixers, and the Hornets have enough perimeter talent to play smaller if needed. K.J. Simpson remains questionable with a hip strain, but he hasn’t been part of the rotation lately anyway. The real concern for Charlotte is whether they can replicate the defensive intensity they showed against a depleted Philadelphia roster against a Memphis team that still has legitimate scoring threats in Jackson Jr. and Aldama.
Memphis Grizzlies Breakdown: The Other Side
Memphis is treading water without Morant, and the loss to Houston exposed their late-game execution issues. Jackson Jr. is averaging 18.9 points, but he’s not a primary ball-handler who can create advantages in pick-and-roll situations the way Morant does. Aldama at 14.0 points and 6.7 rebounds provides versatility, but he’s a complementary piece, not a guy who can carry the offense for extended stretches. Ty Jerome is working his way back from a calf strain and has resumed 5-on-5 work in practice, but there’s no confirmed timeline for his return, and even when he’s cleared, he’ll need time to integrate into game action.
The Grizzlies are also dealing with significant frontcourt injuries. Zach Edey is out for at least another six weeks with an ankle injury, and Brandon Clarke remains sidelined with a calf issue. Jock Landale has been holding down the starting center role, but the lack of depth in the paint limits Memphis’ ability to control the glass or protect the rim consistently. At 9-13 at home, the Grizzlies haven’t been able to leverage FedExForum into a meaningful advantage, and their 8-12 road record suggests they’re just as inconsistent away from home.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to ball-handling and shot creation. Charlotte has Ball orchestrating the offense with 7.6 assists per game, and Miller provides a secondary creator who can attack closeouts and generate quality looks. Memphis doesn’t have an answer for that kind of perimeter creation without Morant. Jackson Jr. is a talented scorer, but he’s not a point-of-attack initiator who can break down defenses off the dribble. Aldama can facilitate from the elbow, but he’s not a primary ball-handler who can run pick-and-roll consistently.
The pace should favor Charlotte. The Hornets want to push in transition and create easy looks before Memphis can set its defense. With Landale as the primary rim protector and no Edey or Clarke to provide additional size, the Grizzlies are vulnerable to penetration and kick-outs. Ball’s ability to push the pace and find shooters in transition should create high-quality looks throughout the game. Memphis will try to slow the game down and grind possessions in the halfcourt, but without Morant, they don’t have the shot creation to consistently generate efficient offense in those situations.
The total at 230.5 feels attainable given both teams’ defensive limitations. Charlotte just scored 130 against Philadelphia, and while Memphis has more defensive talent than the Sixers, they’re missing key rotation pieces and don’t have the perimeter speed to stay in front of Ball and Miller consistently. The Grizzlies will need Jackson Jr. and Aldama to combine for 35-plus points to keep this competitive, and even then, they’ll struggle to match Charlotte’s offensive versatility without a primary ball-handler running the show.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m laying the 2.5 with Charlotte on the road. The Hornets have the better ball-handling, more diverse scoring options, and a clear advantage in perimeter creation. Memphis is missing Morant, Edey, and Clarke, and while Jackson Jr. and Aldama are capable scorers, they don’t have the playmaking to consistently generate quality looks without a primary initiator. Charlotte’s 10-15 road record isn’t inspiring, but they just put up 130 points with all five starters in double figures, and they’re facing a Grizzlies team that got outscored 21-9 in a seven-minute stretch against Houston.
The risk is Charlotte’s defensive inconsistency. If they come out flat and allow Memphis to control the pace, the Grizzlies can grind this into a close game where 2.5 points matters. But the Hornets have the better roster right now, and Memphis doesn’t have the offensive firepower to keep up if Ball and Miller get rolling. This number should be closer to 4 or 4.5 given the talent gap, and I’ll take the short road favorite in a pace-up spot.
BASH’S BEST BET: Charlotte Hornets -2.5 for 2 units.
