Golden State is laying double digits on the road, but the market might be sleeping on a Utah Jazz offense that’s “lava-hot” at the Delta Center. Our NBA Picks investigate whether the Warriors’ thinned-out rotation—missing both Butler and Kuminga—is actually a gift for those backing the double-digit home dog.
The Setup: Warriors at Jazz
Golden State rolls into Salt Lake City laying 10 points against a Jazz squad that’s won just 15 games all season. The Warriors are 26-22 and clinging to the eighth seed in the West. Utah sits at 15-32, thirteenth in the conference, with a home record that’s barely above water at 10-15. On paper, this looks like a mismatch—a playoff-caliber team against a lottery-bound roster. But the Warriors are missing Jimmy Butler for the season and Jonathan Kuminga indefinitely, both knee injuries that have gutted their rotation depth. Stephen Curry is carrying 27.3 points per game, but he’s doing it without the supporting cast that made Golden State dangerous earlier in the year. Meanwhile, Utah’s got Lauri Markkanen averaging 27.7 points and Keyonte George adding 24.2 with 6.6 assists. The Jazz lost Walker Kessler for the season, but they’ve still got enough offensive firepower to make this number uncomfortable. Ten points is a lot to lay on the road when your rotation is held together with duct tape.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Golden State Warriors at Utah Jazz
Date: Wednesday, January 28, 2026
Time: 9:00 PM ET
Venue: Delta Center
TV: Home: KJZZ-TV, Jazz+ | Away: NBC Sports BA, NBA League Pass
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
Spread: Warriors -10.0 (-110) | Jazz +10.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Warriors -400 | Jazz +304
Total: 240.5 (Over -110 | Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market is pricing Golden State’s overall talent advantage and Utah’s bottom-tier conference standing. The Warriors are 26-22 with Curry still playing at an elite level, and they’ve won 17 games at home this season. The Jazz are 15-32 and just 5-17 on the road, which suggests they struggle away from Salt Lake City. But here’s the problem: this game is in Utah, where the Jazz are 10-15. That’s not good, but it’s not catastrophic either. The spread assumes Golden State can impose their will despite missing two rotation cornerstones. Butler was contributing 20.0 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 4.9 assists before going down for the season. Kuminga’s left knee soreness has him week-to-week, and his absence removes another scoring and defensive option. The Warriors are running Brandin Podziemski at 12.2 points per game as their third-leading scorer, and they’re leaning on guys like Buddy Hield, Moses Moody, and Gary Payton to fill the gaps. That’s a lot of pressure on a thin rotation against a Jazz team that can score with Markkanen and George leading the charge. The total at 240.5 reflects both teams’ ability to push pace and score, but it also assumes the Warriors can keep up their offensive efficiency without their usual depth.
Warriors Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Stephen Curry is doing everything he can to keep this team afloat, averaging 27.3 points with 5.0 assists per game. He’s the engine, but the supporting cast is compromised. Butler’s season-ending knee injury removed a 20-point scorer who could create his own shot and defend multiple positions. Kuminga’s absence takes away another athletic wing who could attack the rim and provide energy on both ends. That leaves Podziemski as the third option at 12.2 points per game, and he’s more of a complementary piece than a go-to scorer. The Warriors are 9-15 on the road this season, which tells you they struggle to maintain their identity away from Chase Center. They just lost to Minnesota 108-83 on Monday, a game they played without Curry and Draymond Green due to knee and back issues. That’s a 25-point blowout loss to a team that was also missing key players. The Warriors’ road splits are concerning, and their depth chart is razor-thin right now. They need Curry to be brilliant and everyone else to execute perfectly, which is a tough ask against a Jazz team that can score in bunches.
Jazz Breakdown: The Other Side
Utah’s record is ugly, but their offensive talent is real. Lauri Markkanen is averaging 27.7 points and 7.1 rebounds, giving the Jazz a legitimate scoring threat who can stretch the floor and attack inside. Keyonte George is putting up 24.2 points with 6.6 assists, providing playmaking and shot creation that keeps Utah’s offense functional. The Jazz lost Walker Kessler for the season, which hurts their interior defense and rebounding, but they’ve adjusted by leaning more heavily on their perimeter scoring. Utah is 10-15 at home, which isn’t great, but they’ve shown they can compete in front of their own crowd. They just lost to the Clippers 115-103 on Tuesday, but that was against a Los Angeles team that’s won nine of their last ten. Kawhi Leonard and James Harden are a different level of challenge than what Golden State is bringing right now. The Jazz are playing in a back-to-back situation after hosting the Clippers, which could affect their energy levels, but they’re also facing a Warriors team that’s dealing with its own fatigue and injury issues. Utah’s offense can get hot, and if Markkanen and George find their rhythm, this game stays close.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to whether Golden State’s depleted rotation can sustain defensive stops and offensive efficiency over 48 minutes. The Warriors are missing two key rotation players, which means Curry has to carry an even heavier load without the spacing and defensive versatility that Butler and Kuminga provided. Utah’s offense is built around Markkanen and George, and they’ll attack the Warriors’ thin perimeter defense relentlessly. The Jazz are playing on the second night of a back-to-back after losing to the Clippers, but they’re at home and they’ve got enough offensive firepower to exploit Golden State’s depth issues. The total at 240.5 assumes both teams push pace and score efficiently, but the Warriors’ road struggles and rotation problems make that number risky. Golden State is 9-15 on the road this season, and they just got blown out by Minnesota without Curry and Green. Even with Curry back, they’re asking a lot from guys like Podziemski, Hield, and Moody to step up and deliver consistent production. Utah’s home record of 10-15 suggests they’re competitive at the Delta Center, and they’ve got the offensive talent to keep this game within single digits. The key possession math here is simple: if the Jazz can force the Warriors into contested shots and limit Curry’s clean looks, they’ll stay within striking distance. If Golden State’s role players can’t hit open shots and provide secondary scoring, this spread becomes a problem.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking the Jazz plus the points. Ten is too many to lay with a Warriors team that’s missing two rotation pieces and struggling on the road. Golden State is 9-15 away from home, and they just got demolished by Minnesota in a game where their depth issues were on full display. Curry is brilliant, but he can’t do it alone against a Jazz team that has Markkanen and George both averaging over 24 points per game. Utah is playing on a back-to-back, but they’re at home and they’ve shown they can compete in front of their own crowd. The Warriors’ thin rotation means they’ll have to ride Curry for heavy minutes, and if he gets into foul trouble or Utah’s defense can force him into tough shots, Golden State doesn’t have the secondary scoring to pull away. The main risk here is Curry going nuclear and the Jazz’s back-to-back fatigue catching up late, but the Warriors’ road splits and depth chart crisis make this number too high. I’m backing Utah to keep this game within single digits and potentially steal an outright win if Golden State’s role players can’t step up.
BASH’S BEST BET: Jazz +10.0 for 2 units.
