RBD breaks down another game-two back-to-back fade, explaining why Sacramento is a betting target regardless of opponent.
Sacramento at It-Really-Doesn’t-Matter
I hate the NBA.
I hate it with a white hot burning passion equal to the Sun.
I hate the overpaid players.
I hate their holier-than-thou pontificating on social matters, while safely ensconced behind the walls protecting them in their multi-million dollar mansions.
I hate their ties to communist China and the child labor the greedy bastards use to make money off their sneakers, as if their basketball salaries weren’t obscene enough already.
And I’m reminded of my hatred almost every time I bet an NBA game.
In my last article pick, Wednesday night, I used Brooklyn/Phoenix Over 210.
They combined for 208.
In the last minute of the game I only needed one basket from the Nets to get me a push at worst.
FOURTEEN teams played Wednesday night.
Only ONE didn’t score a single point in the final minute – the Nets.
Hell, only one team didn’t score a single point in the final TWO minutes – the Nets.
In a close game you usually get multiple free throws in the final minute or two.
Every team that’s behind always fouls the team that’s ahead, especially when they’re only down by two points and the shot clock is off.
Every team except – the Nets.
And, oh yeah – there were two technical free throws awarded in the game.
Both were misses.
And I lost by two points.
I hate the NBA.
Thus endeth the rant.
(Until my next write up.)
Now, On to Today’s Play
Last week, in the Toronto/Sacramento game, I talked myself off of a play AGAINST Sacramento.
They were playing in game two of B2B’s.
In game two of B2B’s (Back to Back) Sacramento was 1-5 SU and ATS.
Despite those terrific stats, I used Toronto’s team total Under.
And I lost.
I should have stuck with my original bet because the Kings lost again, by 13 this time, an easy cover for Toronto.
I’m not making that same mistake today.
Sacramento played last night in a hard fought, tight game that went down to the final seconds, a 113-111 loss to Philadelphia.
That effort had to drain a little out of them.
And they have to go right out and play again tonight, on the road in Boston.
I don’t care what the line is.
I don’t care who the opponent is.
It doesn’t really matter.
I’m fading Sacramento tonight.
The Numbers Don’t Lie
I’m not making the same mistake I made last time the Kings were in game two of B2B’s, when I looked deeper into the stats and saw Toronto was 0-4 SU when they were also in game two of B2B’s.
I researched my way right out of a winner, opting for Toronto’s team total rather than just betting AGAINST the Kings.
Not tonight.
Sacramento is 2-6 SU and ATS in game two of B2B’s.
Sacramento is 1-5 ATS after a loss in game one of B2B’s, and they’re coming off a tough loss to the 76ers last night.
Yes, the line is high, Boston -11.
I need to win by double digits.
But it’s not much of a concern when you look at how many points the Kings have lost by in their six losses after playing the night before:
13, 33, 41, 24, 27, 13.
That’s an average of 25 PPG.
They’re not just getting beat, they’re getting slaughtered.
So laying 11 points doesn’t seem too much to ask for in this spot.
And it doesn’t hurt that the Celtics are 6-4, 60%, when favored by double digits.
I’m riding this “Fade Sacramento in game two” trend and hoping I can squeeze another win out of it before a reversion toward the mean starts to set it.
My play:
Boston -11
Record (articles and forum): 7-6
