RBD breaks down Clippers vs Kings picks using team-specific stats, back-to-back angles, and sharp NBA betting analysis.
In Wednesday’s article* I talked about the difference between league stats (stats based on how all teams perform in a certain situation) and team specific stats (stats based on how a specific team performs when it’s in that situation.)
I’m buying a play today based on team specific stats.
Tonight, the Sacramento Kings are playing in Game one of B2B’s (Back-to-Back nights.)
Here are some stats on the Kings in the B2B spots:
Game one:
SU 2-7
ATS 5-4
Ov/Un 1-8
Game two:
SU 2-7
ATS 2-7
Ov/Un 6-3
See any edges we can exploit?
As long as the records don’t start to level out, we have a 77% edge fading the Kings on the money line in Game one, and a 77% edge on the money line AND the spread in Game 2.
For totals we have an 88% edge on Unders in Game one at 1-8, and a 67% play on the Over in Game two at 6-3.
Ya gotta love when you have choices like that! Of course, the big question is — which one to choose? Or which ones to choose.
Hard to ignore that 88% edge on Unders in Game 1, so let’s look a little closer at that spot.
The Kings opponent tonight is the LA Clippers.
LAC has an Ov/Un record of 27-24; slight edge to the Over.
On the road, like tonight’s game, the Clippers are 9-6; another edge to the Over.
For recent play, they’re 4-1 to the Over in their last five games.
The number on tonight’s game is 222.
In their last ten games the Clippers and Kings are a combined 12-8 to the Over based on tonight’s number. Another edge to the Over.
And in their only head-to-head meeting this season they combined for 221, just a point fewer than tonight’s number.
Despite Sacramento’s 1-8 record to the Under in Game one of B2B’s, there are too many edges that also point to the Over. Rather than pull the trigger on that play I’m going to go with the Clippers on the points line.
Yes, Sacramento is 5-4 ATS in Game one of the B2B spot, but the line came out on this one at LAC -3′ and as Home Dogs the Kings are 7-13 ATS this season.
But here’s what sealed the deal for me:
When Sacramento is a small Home Dog of five points or fewer they’re 2-8 ATS.
That’s 7-13 (65%) overall as Dogs, and just 2-8 (80%) as small dogs.
In their last 10 games the Clippers are 6-4 SU.
In their last 10 games the Kings are 0-10. In fact, they’ve lost 11 straight.
I hate to jump on streaks but I’m going to look for this one to extend by at least one more game.
My buy: LAC -3′
Recap: 1-0
Record: 9-7
Review: I went with a couple of team specific stats that said both Boston and Houston were in spots that lean towards an Under. The line opened at 217. I got in and wrote it up when it was at 214. It closed at 210. They combined for 207. The Under got off to a great start when they combined for just 35 points in the first quarter.
NEXT!
* Correction — In Wednesday’s article I said I prefer team specific stats over league wide stats. I had it backwards. League wide stats are preferable simply because they have a much larger database.
