RBD breaks down Cavaliers vs Kings betting angles, totals trends, and offers sharp Super Bowl prop thoughts without forcing a play.
Saturday night we have the Kings in Game two of B2B’s.
Here are the stats I’m looking at when Sacramento played the night before.
In game two they are:
SU 2-7
ATS 2-7
Ov/Un 6-3
Plenty to work with there.
Today they face the Cavaliers.
Tonight’s numbers, Cavs -12′, 233′.
Cleveland is playing with two days rest.
They’re 4-2 SU when playing with two days rest.
Nice number there at 4-2, BUT they’re 1-6 ATS in those games.
And the Cavs are 1-8 as Double Digit Favorites this season.
As much as I’d like to use that 2-7 stat on a King’s Fade (especially since I’m in the mood for Revenge since they cover the spread by half a point against me last night) I can’t ignore 1-8 on the Cavs as DD Favs.
But I still have a 67% play on the Over to look at.
Cleveland is 13-11 to the Over on the road this year.
Slight edge to the Over.
Sacramento is 12-14 Ov/Un at home this season.
That’s a slight edge to the under but in Game two of B2B’s they’re 6-3 Over.
I think the number is kind of high at 233′ but I’ll ride the 6-3 spot.
My play:
Cle/Sac Ov 233′
Super Bowl Update
In my Wednesday article I mentioned a few props I was looking at.
One of them was Drake Maye rushing yards Over.
Right now the number is set at 37′.
That’s more than 10 yards higher than his per game average this season.
I don’t like the number at 37′, and I don’t like the fact that Maye’s shoulder is injured.
In order to hit a quarterback’s rushing yards Over you need two factors contributing to his stats.
You need a couple of plays when his receivers are covered and he ends up scrambling to avoid the pass rush.
And you need a couple of designed quarterback runs.
With the shoulder injury, coach Vrabel is likely to limit the design quarterback runs to try and keep his quarterback safe and in the game (especially with Bo Nix on the mind.)
It’s the Super Bowl, and players will go all out to win it, in spite of any injuries they may have.
But the likely lack of design QB runs will keep me off this prop.
Playing off that thought, I think we might see a few more quick, short passes from New England, as they try and keep the pressure off Drake Maye.
This has me looking at Rhamondre Stevenson.
His receptions are set at 3′ Over +130.
He only surpassed that number twice during the 17 regular season games, and once during the playoffs.
His receiving yards prop is set at 24′, +100.
He surpassed that number in six of 17 regular season games, and once in three playoff games.
But he’s got 25 or more in six of his last eight games, with one near miss at 22 yards.
With Maye hurting, I expect at least one or two more targets than normal coming Stevenson’s way.
He’s also at +140 for any time touchdown, and despite Seattle’s tough defense I like him to get at least one TD, either through the air or on the ground.
I’m just offering food for thought.
I have no recommended bets for the Super Bowl.
But if you’re looking for some in-game fun on props I’d suggest taking a close look at Stevenson.
And be careful if you’re looking at any of Maye’s props to go Over.
He’s just one solid hit to the shoulder away from missing game time with an injury.
Recap
Recap: 0-1
Record: 9-8
Review:
Good move/Bad move.
Good move – despite being 1-8 on Overs in Game one of B2B’s, I didn’t like the spot for other reasons last night and didn’t play the Under.
And the game went Over.
Bad move – I opted for the Clippers -4′.
They were up by 10 points with about 2 minutes left in the game.
They were up by eight points with 24 seconds left.
It should have been easy from that point on.
They’d get fouled a couple of times, they’d make a couple free throws, and I’d bank my unit.
They DID get fouled, twice in the final 24 seconds.
And they missed TWO of their four free throws.
But my bet was still alive.
With 1.8 seconds left on the clock, down by five points and zero chance of winning, the Kings would just dribble out the final second of the clock, right?
WRONG !!!
Devin Carter ran unchallenged to the hoop, sank the layup, and I lost by the hook.
Have I mentioned lately how much I hate basketball?
