Five different betting models point to the same total play as Memphis visits Golden State, setting up a rare NBA handicapping spot.
Tonight, I have not one, not two, not three, not four but FIVE different models that give an edge to this game going Over.
Here they are:
T1 has a record of 23-15 on Overs.
That’s s a 60% edge.
T2 has the record of 38-28 on Overs.
That’s a 57% edge.
When I have a match, when both models call for a game to go Over, the record is 5-1.
That’s an 83% edge.
And I have eight subcategory that I track on games that qualify as plays in either the two models I’m using to pick totals. I won’t get too deep into the weeds and explain the math ankles but I’ll just say that two of them have this game going over one is at 62% and the other is at 53%.
Combined record of all these plays is 92-64.
That’s a 59% edge on more than 150 games charted.
Don’t think I’ve ever seen a game this season we’re all five models say to go the same way, and. with numbers like those I can’t ignore it.
I have my shovel out and I’m going to dig deeper. Let’s look at the standard stats.
Line opened at 225 and is down to 222 right now. It’s moving in my favor so that means I’ll wait to buy it.
Memphis is 10-15 Ov/Un on the Rd,
GS is 15-11 Ov/Un at Hm.
Not good numbers for an Over.
How about H2H?
They met back on 10/31 and combined for 249 points.
That looks good for the Over tonight but it’s tempered a bit by the fact that Morant played in the game for Memphis but he’s out tonight.
And Curry and Butler played that night for GS, but they’re both out for tonight.
(Okay, the 249 is tempered by a LOT, not “a bit.”)
But, “Next man up” right?
Okay based on the roster differences between the earlier meeting and tonight, I need to look at recent play.
Memphis is 5-0 Ov/Un in their last five games.
Golden State is 2-3 Ov/Un.
Using the number on tonight’s game, (currently at 222) those records stay the same.
All five of Memphis’ games surpassed 222, only two of Golden State’s last five went Over 222.
Clearly I’m going to need Memphis to push the pace tonight and do most of the scoring to get me to the number I need. But it’s rare that I get five models all pointing in the same direction, so there’s no way I’m not buying this one.
My play:
Mem/GS Ov (wait to buy)
Recap: 1-0
Record: 10-8
Review:
Last play I gave out was Cle/Sac Ov 233′.
They combined for 258.
Make a note – when playing in game two of B2B’s Sacramento is now 7-3, 68% to the Over.
In my next article, I’ll list a couple other stats to keep note of as you handicap your way through the rest of the NBA season.
Super Bowl Afterthoughts
Congratulations to Seattle fans (like me!)
The TV commercials sucked.
(Did I really see one that asked me what color my pee is??!!)
(If network programmers had any sense of humor at all they’d play the pee ad back to back with the home colon test kit, Colonguard.)
On the two plays I suggested, Stevenson receiving yards Over and Stevenson to score a TD, both came home as winners.
And it was solid advice to say “Avoid any Drake Maye props going Over – I think every prop offered on him came in as an Under.
Just 46 days to the start of the USFL!
(Yes, I know small consolation for “real” football. But it’s all we have until August.)
