RBD breaks down his NBA betting models for Knicks vs 76ers, highlighting system matches, flip-flop line movement, and key handicapping angles.
With 14 games on the calendar tonight my handicapping took a little bit longer than usual.
And with that many games I knew I’d come up with a few possible plays.
Using two main models for totals and two for sides (along with about a dozen subcategories) I have 13 spots to choose from tonight.
Unfortunately most of them have records that are hovering at around the .500 range.
Making it even more difficult to isolate a game to buy is the fact that my last play, Memphis at Golden State on Monday, qualified for FIVE different models, all with winning records on the Over.
Stuff like that spoils you as a handicapper, it takes most of the thinking out of handicapping, clearly pointing out what to buy.
Was hoping for (but not expecting) a similar spot tonight.
But I got lucky.
I have another play that qualifies for multiple systems.
The Knicks are playing in Game two of B2B’s AND are playing after an OT game last night.
Let’s look at those situations and see what the records tell us.
In Game two 2 of B2B’s New York is:
4-4 SU
4-4 ATS
No edges there.
Same with totals, 4-4 Ov/Un.
No edges there.
The Knicks lost last night at home to the Pacers, 137-134.
Off a SU loss in Game one, the Knicks are 1-2 SU in Game two, and 1-2 ATS.
Edge to the Sixers there.
The Knicks have only played in one OT game this season. In their next game they lost SU and ATS. But they had a night off in between the two games so it doesn’t give us much correlation to tonight’s spot.
Philadelphia is a Flip Flop Fav in this one.
They opened as Dogs of +1, and are now the Fav, laying -2.
I wish I had the record for Flip Flop Favs for the NBA but I don’t. Too many games to track.
From my own models, T1 says the Knicks should be the Fav.
T1’s record on road teams is 31-35, a losing record but no real edge to exploit.
Also, I have a match.
T2 also says the Knicks should be the Fav in this one. T2 has a record of 17-21 on road teams.
And when I have a match, when a team qualifies as a play for both models, the record on road teams is 1-3.
AND the Knicks qualify as an asterisk spot.
Haven’t had many of these this season, but the record for road teams in this play is 5-8, a 61% edge that says Fade it!
That’s enough qualifying factors for me to buy the Hm Fav tonight.
For standard stuff, the Knicks are 30-25 ATS in all games but just 10-16 on the road.
That edge is offset a bit by the 76ers being just 13-15 ATS at home.
Joel Embiid is listed as questionable.
Two games ago, he played 33 minutes and scored 33 points for Philly. But he missed their last game and they lost by 17 points on the road at Portland.
He’s a game time decision with knee problems. When I tune in to watch tonight I’m going to need to see him in there for the opening tip off.
The Knicks come in hot, winners of 12 of their last 14. But coming off a tough loss at home Tuesday night I’m looking for that pendulum to start swinging the other way, with New York getting tagged with an L on the road tonight.
My play:
Phil -2
Recap: 1-0
Record 11-8
Review: Got a W with the Mem/GS game Over on Monday night. I watched only about 2 to 3 minutes of the first quarter and saw the teams combine for a WNBA-like three of four free throws missed.
And I changed the channel.
Mark Your Calendar
I’m my last article I said I’d give you some stats to keep an eye on for upcoming games.
After their ATS loss to Sacramento on February 7th, Cleveland is now 1-9 ATS as Double Digit Favs.
You want to AVOID laying big numbers with the Cavs.
In that same game, Over bettors cashed again.
The total was 229 and it sailed over by 29 points!
The Sacramento Kings are now 7-3 to the Over when playing in Game 2 B2B’s.
Their next Game two of B2B’s comes on 2/26, at Dallas. Mark Your Calendar!
