RBD breaks down Thunder B2B trends and Detroit’s ATS dominance as a 7-point favorite in this NBA betting matchup.
OKC at Detroit
NBA Prediction for the Battle of the Alphas
We have a great matchup in the NBA tonight as the number one team in the Eastern conference takes on the number one team in the Western conference.
And, fittingly, it’s going to be nationally televised on ESPN.
The game is so intriguing, even someone who loathes watching the NBA (like me) will be tempted to get some action down on it and tune in.
Fortunately, I don’t have to go in blind with a dart-tossed bet. I found a wagering edge.
OKC is playing in Game two of B2B’s.
Here are some numbers you need to know if you’re looking at betting on this game.
Thunder in Game Two of B2B’s
In Game two the Thunder are:
3-6 SU
1-8 ATS
3-6 Ov/Un
That’s a 67% edge Fading them SU.
That’s an 88% edge Fading them ATS.
That’s a 67% edge taking the Under.
All three stats look great, but let’s dig a little deeper. They’re on the Rd tonight at Detroit.
When Game two is on the Rd the Thunder are:
0-4 SU
0-4 ATS
3-1 Ov/Un
We still have a solid play on the sides, SU and ATS, but the edge on taking the Under disappears as three of four have gone Over.
Line Movement & Situational Angles
Detroit opened at -5 and is already up to -7.
Oklahoma is not often the Dog, let’s check their record in that spot.
Reviewing their schedule I only see three games where the Thunder were getting points, and they’re 2-1 ATS. Not a good looking stat if you’re looking to lay 7 with the Pistons tonight.
Detroit is just 15-14 ATS at home, so no help there either.
Suddenly, I’m not feeling so good about Fading OKC and Game two of B2B’s.
Applying Tonight’s Number
But let’s apply tonight’s number to Detroit.
What is the Pistons record as Favs of 7 points or more?
10-0 ATS.
And with that, I’m back on the Fade the Thunder bandwagon.
My Play
Det -7
I have two games that fit the same profile I used on the Dal/Brook game last night. I’ll have an update in the PredictEm forum early this afternoon.
Recap & Review
Recap: 1-0
Record: 14-10
Review:
I had the Over in the Dallas/Brooklyn game, based on my T1 Over spot (was 29 – 15) and a subcategory with a solid play ON percentage.
The number was 224 when I started writing the article but went up to 225 when I finished it.
It closed at 226′.
They combined for 237.
Correction – I listed the subcategory at 12-6 yesterday. This morning I noticed I didn’t include last week’s games on this particular stat.
The correct record was 16-6.
Now, 17-6.
NEXT!!
