RBD analyzes Detroit in a Game two B2B spot and uncovers betting value on both the side and total in the Pistons vs Heat matchup.
Unfortunately I have no T1 Overs (37-21, 63%) to play today, but I have some interesting numbers on the Pistons/Heat game.
Detroit heads to Miami to play in the Game two of B2B’s spot.
And I’m putting my money down on a side and total in this one.
Pistons in Game Two of B2B’s
Detroit is 8-1 SU in Game two’s so they’ve obviously got a good bench that can help spread the minutes around so the starters don’t get tired from being overplayed.
Their only loss was at Hm so no worries about being on the Rd today.
They’re also 3-0-1 ATS on the Rd in this spot so no worries there either.
And they’re getting points.
As Dogs in Game two of B2B’s they’re 2-0, another stat in my favor today.
Total Trends
The Pistons are 6-3, 67%, to the Over in this spot and more importantly 4-0 when Game two is on the Rd.
This is the second time they’ll play in a Rd game after being at Hm the night before.
Last time they won SU and ATS.
And the game went Over.
And, coincidence of coincidences, their opponent that day was . . . Miami.
The score?
Det 138, Mia 135, a combined 273 points!
Hoping I get some similar type scoring today.
Line Movement
Today’s game opened at Mia -1′, 227′.
In the time while I was writing this the line has gone to Det -1 and 229′ (the Det 2-0 as Rd Dogs in Game two is now irrelevant) so I bought both plays now before the lines move against me.
My Plays
Det -1
Det/Mia Over 229′
College Update
I gave out a college basketball pick in the PredictEm forum on Saturday.
It’s the first game I bought since January 28th.
Part of the reason for the lack of plays is every one of my stats is hovering at approximately .500.
WF1, WF2, T1, and T2 have records like 22-21, 35-32, 18-19, 14-15, etc.
I have no edges to use.
The other reason for the lack of plays is I haven’t been handicapping it every day.
Too many games, consuming too much of my time.
But now that we’re into the tournaments I’ll put in the work and handicap it every day.
I’ve also tightened the qualifying parameters a little bit so hopefully it’ll start kicking out a few more plays to use.
I had a subcategory with a record of 5-9 going into play yesterday, the one I call the Asterisk Spot.
At 5-9 it was good for a 60% fade.
The math model kicked out Florida State as the Wrong Fav and called for a play on SMU +1′.
So I Faded the Mustangs.
Seminoles took it 91-78.
The W puts the asterisk spot at 5-10, a solid 67% Fade, and the play put me back on the plus side of the ledger for my college buys at 8-7.
Be sure to check the forum every day for more plays, college and pro.
NBA Update
Recap: 2-0
Record: 23-14
Review:
It was another multi-game day as I posted two picks.
First up, Miami +7′.
Miami was in Game two of B2B’s.
The Heat were 9-4 ATS in this spot.
The Heat were 3-1 ATS when Game two was on the road.
The Heat were 5-1 ATS when they were getting points.
The Heat won SU.
The updated records are 10-4, 4-1, and 6-1.
Solid win percentages, all.
Miami has one more Game two on the Rd, April 10th at Washington.
Mark your calendar.
(Despite a solid record this NBA update has me suddenly feeling bad. Miami was good to me in my last play. I hate to go against a team that just won for me. I feel a little like Benedict Arnold.)
My second play was also based on B2B numbers.
Denver was 10-3 to the Over when playing in Game two of B2B’s.
They’re now 11-3.
The Nuggets have three more Game two’s left on their schedule in this final month of the season.
Side Note
Here’s why I continually remind bettors/readers to stay aware of Reversion Towards the Mean:
T2 Overs on December 13th, 17-8, 68%.
T2 Overs on March 8th, 52-48.
With every 10 losses equaling one unit, 52-48 means there’s no profit left at all.
I saw it heading in that direction and stopped using the play.
Stay aware of Reversion Towards the Mean.
