RBD breaks down three qualifying NBA betting spots from his T1 model, analyzing key back-to-back trends and totals handicapping angles across tonight’s card.
I made a bad call on Tuesday morning.
As I noted that day in the PredictEm Forum, I had a really strong play on Bos/SA Ov.
The game qualified for three different models I track.
T1 38-21, 64%
a match with T2, 8-3, 72%
and the subcategory for Overs that’s 25-21, 69%
But standard stats on the team specific Ov/Un numbers for both teams made me change my mind and not bet it.
The total was 220.
They scored 241.
Talked myself out of an easy winner.
In fact, I had three T1 spots available to choose from on Tuesday and I stayed off all three of them because of standard stats.
In hindsight, the smart strategy would be to play all three, knowing I’ve got a good chance at 2-1.
And that’s what happened, two of the three games went Over.
Despite the current record of 40-22, 64%, I was actually hoping I didn’t have a game that qualified on Wednesday. If I did it would have put me in that spot I hate – buying a game from a system I stayed off of the night before, and and missing out because it won.
Fortunately Wednesday was a short card and no games qualified for the T1 spot.
But I have one tonight.
In fact, I have three tonight.
And I’m not going to make the same mistake I made on Tuesday.
The play is hitting at a very high W percentage.
And I’ve already banked plenty of units riding it so there’s no danger continuing to do so.
I’m playing every game that qualifies until (if) the record starts to level out.
Let’s look at today’s three spots that qualify, and some other angles on the games.
Phoenix at Indiana
Qualifies for T1 at 40-22.
Qualifies for my best subcategory, 27-12.
But no match with T2 (9-4).
Both teams are playing a Game one of B2B’s.
Phoenix is 6-3 Ov/Un in this spot, 67%.
I like that.
Indiana is 5-5. I got no problem there.
Washington at Orlando
Qualifies for T1 at 40-22.
Qualifies for a subcategory that is 6-3.
No match with T2.
Orlando is in Game two of B2B’s.
Orlando is just 4-5 Ov/Un in Game two’s, but their first three games in the spot all went under, much earlier in the season.
Three of their last four in this spot have gone Over and four of six, so I’m okay with the 4-5 overall record and I’m looking for it to even out at 5-5 after tonight’s game.
Chicago at Los Angeles
Qualifies for T1 at 40-22.
Also qualifies for the 6-3 subcategory I track.
No match with T2.
Chicago is in Game one of B2B’s.
Chicago is 6-4 Ov/Un in this spot.
(Mark Your Calendar – tomorrow, Chicago is in Game 2. In Game two of B2B’s the Bulls are:
3-7 ATS, 3-7 Ov/Un.)
Phx/Ind opened at 226′
Wash/Orl opened at 230
Chicago/LAL opened at 233
Two the three games have already gone higher.
(I blew it on the Chi/LAL game. It was 235 when I finished this article. Didn’t submit it right away and it’s at 238′ right now.)
My plays:
Phx/Ind Ov 223′
Wash/Orl Ov 233′
Chicago/LAL Ov 238′
Record 24-16
