RBD looks to bounce back with a spread betting pick in Toronto vs Boston, leaning on late-season trends and a proven handicapping spot.
Toronto at Boston
Side Pick and Analysis
In my first article on the NBA this season I warned readers that the NBA is not my best sport. I wrote that one of the main reasons for this is I don’t watch games, and to be the best you can be at handicapping sports you need to watch the game so you can learn team and coaching tendencies.
Yesterday was a painful reminder of this lesson.
From yesterday’s article:
“I rarely let the exclusion of one player push me off a bet because the books build that factor into their numbers, but Joel Embiid is one of the exceptions, I won’t bet on the Sixers if he’s out.”
Before buying my bets and posting the article with I checked the injury report.
Embiid was not on it.
So I made my bets.
When I tuned into the game I was shocked/pissed because he wasn’t playing.
The announcer said, “He’s a healthy scratch.”
“Healthy scratch??!!”
For Christ sake you’re making $55,224,526.00 for the 2025/26 season. Unless your leg is broken get your sorry ass off the bench and play, Mr. Softee!”
(Especially if I have money on your team.)
After the one announcer said he’s a healthy scratch the other announcer said, “Coach Nurse usually sits him in Game two of back-to-backs.”
And so, I got the painful reminder, because I don’t watch the sport I didn’t know the coach’s tendency is to not play Embiid in Game two’s.
And I lost the side and the total when the Philadelphia Quitters scored just two points in the first 6 minutes of the fourth quarter. (More on that later.)
But I digress. Angrily. Very.
On to today’s pick.
Breaking Down the Spot
This is the part of the season where I’m supposed to do well because I have a full year’s worth of data to use. But it hasn’t worked out that way.
Two weeks ago I was plus 10 units and looking good heading into the postseason.
Now I have just two units of profit to use as I go into the last week before postseason play.
In other words, I need a winner today.
And to get it, I’m turning to one of my long-term winning spots, and one of the hottest teams in the NBA, one of the best teams, one that doesn’t quit even when their star (Tatum) is out (looking at you, Philadelphia.)
One of my two Asterisk Spots (Orange) says Toronto should be the Favorite on the Rd today.
This (Orange) is the best of my two asterisk spots, with a long history of profitability.
It’s been slim pickings though this season with only 11 Rd teams qualifying.
And the record is 4-7, a 63% Fade.
The game opened at Bos -9′ and that’s where it’s still at. Some houses have moved to higher juice on Boston, so I’m buying this now before it goes to -10.
The Celtics have a point differential of +7.5 and I’ll need at least two points better than that today. I need a double digit win but I’m betting on a team that’s won four of the last five overall, and by an average of 18 points, so I like my position here.
Toronto has won three of their last five, SU and ATS. Their losses were by an average of 9.5, coincidentally the spread on today’s game.
In their last 10 road games they’re just 3-7 SU.
Boston has Toronto’s number this season, winning all three meetings, winning two of them by eight points and the third by 16 points.
That’s an average margin of victory of 10 points.
Exactly what I need today.
My Play
Bos -9′
Recap
Recap: 0-2
Record: 29-25
With Embiid out I was dead on my side bet on the Sixers. And I couldn’t even buy off of it because Detroit jumped out to a huge lead in the first quarter. But after a high scoring Q1 of 72 points, a pace for 288, I should be able to bank the Over and get a split on the day.
After a solid 59 point Q2, I only needed a measly 48 points in Q3 and Q4 to hit the Over 226′.
But Detroit, with no Embiid (and no heart) quit in the second half.
In the fourth quarter, in front of their home fans, they scored two points in the first 6 minutes of play.
TWO!
They were on pace for a four-point quarter!
I’ve had some bad beats and some poor play but the Sixers performance in Q4 wins the award for the Most Disgusting Performance of the Season.
Next?
