RBD targets two NBA betting spots with playoff urgency, model-driven angles, and sharp situational handicapping insights.
Atlanta at Cleveland
OKC at LAC
Two NBA Predictions and Analysis
I got a much-needed win with my last buy, thanks to the Orange Asterisk Spot (God I feel stupid saying/writing that, but I have to call it something when referring to it and Orange is the color ink I use to differentiate these from other spots on my charts.)
I stopped the bleeding from a recent losing streak and guaranteed that I’ll Beat my Bookies for the NBA season and finish with a profit.
Not by much (and by even less if I pull an 0’fer tonight) but I’ve hit my first two goals.
For new readers (and a refresher for old) here they are again:
Goal Number One: Do Not Lose Money
Goal Number Two: Finish the Season with a Profit
Any profit.
Goal Number Three: The Grail, 67%
And there is of course the main goal, throughout all my endeavors in life – HAVE FUN!
Now, on to tonight’s picks.
There are only four days left in the regular season so remember when you’re doing your ‘capping to consider that extra factor – which teams will still be playing to win, and which teams will be investigated by the NBA for pulling their stars and cheating their ticket buying fans (looking at you, Milwaukee.)
Game one:
Atlanta at Cleveland
I lucked out. I have a game that qualifies for an Asterisk Spot.
Not the same as my last pick (Orange, which is a subcategory of WF2) this is a subcategory of WF1 (Blue, because it’s charted with blue ink in my charts.)
WF1 (my main model for picking Wrong Favorites) says the Atlanta Falcons (Oops, wrong bird) the Atlanta Hawks should be the Fav.
Atlanta’s on the Rd tonight and Rd teams in the WF1 spot are 39-47.
Slightly profitable at 54.6%
But it also qualifies for the Asterisk Spot.
The Blue Asterisk Spot has only had four games qualify this season. It has a record of 1-3, a 75% FADE.
I can remove the, “Will this team quit in their last three games or play to win?” factor because both the Hawks and Cavs are still fighting for playoff positioning.
The fourth place Cavs are just one game behind the Knicks in the Eastern conference, with three games remaining on their schedule.
The Hawks are right behind the Cavs in 5th place, but with no chance of catching them.
They’re only one game ahead of Toronto, with three other teams two games behind them as all five of them fight for the fifth spot in the postseason.
So we can expect a maximum effort from both teams tonight.
Atlanta is coming off a tough loss to the Knicks in their last game, while Cleveland has won three in a row and eight of their last 10.
Momentum edge, SU-wise, to Cleveland.
ATS? Not so much.
The Cavs are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10.
The Hawks are 6-4.
Those are some pretty ugly ATS numbers for someone who’s looking at Cleveland but I don’t get a lot of chances to ride with a play that’s been very profitable for me over the past two seasons and I’m not going to pass up the opportunity for an Asterisk Spot tonight.
And here’s what made this an easy pick for me despite those ATS numbers – the line is a very small number.
The Cavs opened at -2′ but money’s coming in on the Hawks and it’s at -1′ now.
I’ll wait a little bit before buying this to see if I can get that hook knocked off and just need a SU win.
Game two:
Los Angeles Clippers at Oklahoma Thunder
Another WF1 Fade.
This one says the Clippers should be the Fav.
LA is at home tonight and the record for Hm teams in the WF1 spot is 26-27.
So why am I playing a play that has a record that gives me no edge?
Because the Clippers played last night.
In Game Two of B2B’s LAC is a losing proposition at 6-8.
But here’s where it gets really good.
In the subcategories where I track Hm/Rd, I see that the Clippers are 0-4 when Game Two is a Hm game.
And they’re at home in Inglewood tonight.
For the “Quit or play to win factor” LAC is locked into the Play In tournament with no chance to get a guaranteed postseason bid.
No need for them to play hard and win tonight, the game makes no difference to their positioning.
I like that factor.
OKC is sitting in the number one spot, but just three games ahead of second place San Antonio with three games left.
With Denver and Phoenix ahead on their schedule, tonight’s game is the easiest chance to lock up the number one seed.
Plus, there’s this:
Coach Daigneault understands the value of entering the postseason in a winning groove.
Last season, despite having the number one seed locked up, the Thunder won their last four games, meaningless contests, pounding out double-digit wins in all four of them.
So I’m okay laying six and a half points in this one.
My plays:
Cle (wait to buy)
OKC -6′
Recap:
1-0
Record: 30-25
