RBD breaks down his betting approach for the NBA Play-In, using past results and handicapping models to shape tonight’s prediction.
Portland at Phoenix
NBA Play In Prediction
So the postseason is here and you’re ready to make your bets. First up, the Play In games.
Who did you have in last year’s Play In games?
Did you bet a side? A total? Both?
How did you do, did you win or lose?
If you can’t answer that question you’re severely limiting yourself as a handicapper.
When handicapping tonight’s card you’ll look at the teams that are playing.
You’ll look at their records.
You’ll check out their stats.
You’ll find out if they’re strong as Favs or Dogs, and you’ll do some research to find out what their record is on Ov/Un’s.
You’ll look at their head-to-head matchups in the regular season.
You’ll’ do all that work so that you can make what you THINK will be an informed decision on which way to bet.
But if you don’t know your own stats, if you don’t know where your own strengths and weaknesses are, you’re not making a fully informed decision.
You’re not seeing every angle on the chessboard.
Do the work.
Get the whole picture. And THEN bet.
Thus endeth the lesson.
That’s enough preaching. Let’s get to tonight’s game by taking a look at the good and bad of my pick, Under in Portland at Phoenix.
My handicapping model T2 says this game goes Over.
T2 Overs had a regular season record of 73-67, a winning record but break even with juice factored in.
In the subcategory where I match numbers between the two different models I use for totals, this fits the category that had a 26-29 record on Overs, giving me a slight edge for the Under tonight.
Now let’s look at some league-wide stats for Play In games over the last few years.
I have the two year total for totals at 5-9 Ov/Un.
That’s a 64% edge on Unders.
Team specific stats for these two aren’t as pretty.
They played each other three times this year:
November 18th, 227 points scored.
That’s 10 points higher than the total set on tonight’s game, 217′.
February 3rd, 255 points scored.
That’s 37 points higher than tonight’s totals.
That’s a whole lot of ugly if you’re looking at an Under for tonight.
February 22nd, 169 points scored.
That’s 48 points beneath tonight’s total.
Two of the three regular season meetings flew over tonight’s number. Let’s hope tonight’s game is in line with their most recent contest.
During the regular season there was no edge betting on Portland either Under or Over as they finished at 42-40.
Phoenix had a slight edge towards the Under at 37-44-1.
I practice what I preach, so before I made any bets this post season I checked my chart from last year.
How did I do in the Play Ins?
I only bought one of the six games.
I used Under 220′ on the Atlanta/Orlando game.
It landed on 215.
And that’s what I’m going back to tonight, an Under.
My play:
Port/Phx Un 217′
Recap: 2-0
Record: 33-25
Review:
After faltering a bit in the last week of the season I closed strong, winning three straight.
I hit my first two goals – I didn’t lose any money, and I finished with a profit.
NEXT!
