RBD rides strong betting form into Round 2, breaking down trends, models, and history behind this NBA total pick.
Philadelphia at New York
NBA Prediction on the Total
I had a terrific Round One, going 5-1 in game picks and added another unit with the Knicks series win over Atlanta to finish 6-1.
Building on a successful 33-25 regular season I’m now sitting at 39-26 overall, a rock solid 60% with more than 60 games wagered on and recommended.
I’d be very happy with those numbers in ANY sport, but considering I generally don’t watch the NBA I’m really thrilled with my season thus far.
And watching the sport you’re betting on DOES make a difference to your bottom line.
If I wasn’t watching the UFL I wouldn’t have had Birmingham for a winner yesterday (I’ll have more on that in my UFL article coming later this week.)
So I’ve got a nice cushion on my bankroll going into Round 2. Let’s get to it.
Round One Trends and Market Movement
Let’s look at some numbers from the first round of the playoffs.
The Unders started on a furious tear of 12-2, good for 85%. But, “law of averages/Reversion Towards the Mean” etc, the Over has come roaring back, going 19-18.
The Ov/Un record heading into Round Two is 21-30. Still an edge for the Unders, but starting to level out.
In Round One I used the “Under on Game Ones Played on Monday’s” stat I had in my notes, and banked a unit.
That stat is only good for round one.
Last year, round two games played on Monday were 4-0 to the Over. And that’s what I’m using today when the 76ers visit the Knicks, the Over.
Here are a few reasons why.
T2 Model and Reversion Angle
First – the game qualifies as a play for my T2 model for selecting totals.
T2 Over has a record of 21-27.
So why am I betting on a stat with a losing record, instead of Fading it as I normally do?
Because earlier this season the play had a record of 7-17, which means that since Reversion Towards the Mean has set in the record is 14-10, 58%.
Recent Form and Head-to-Head History
Second – as noted above, the Under was the way to go early in Round One but the Over has a slight edge in recent play, including a run of 4-2 and three in a row.
Third – the H2H (head-to-head) history of these two teams during the regular season heavily skews to the Over.
Here are the scores:
116-107, 223 total points scored.
130-119, 249
112-109, 221
138-89, 227
Today’s number opened at 210 and has been bet up to 213.
Three of the four regular season meetings surpassed today’s total by double digits, the fourth one would have been Over by eight points.
Game Outlook
Yes, the postseason is a different animal than the regular season and defenses usually tighten up a bit, but there’s a saying, “Those who don’t learn from history are doomed to repeat it.”
I’m looking for regular season history to repeat itself at least one more game with these two teams tonight.
Five of the Knick’s six Round One playoff games tied or surpassed today’s total.
Only two of three Philadelphia Rd games in Round One surpassed today’s total, but the two that didn’t were games in which Boston wasn’t hitting their threes and managed to score just 97 points in each game.
In one game they went just 13 of 50 for 26%.
In the second game they hit only 11 of 39 for 28%
New York will hit better than 28% on their threes tonight, and New York will score more than 97 points.
My Play
Phil/NY Ov 213
