Quick Recap:
• Record: 6-5
• Units: +1.8
• Best Win: Atlanta Braves ML (+2.0u)
• Tough Loss: Cleveland Guardians ML (-3.0u)
Joe Jensen closed May 10 with a +1.8-unit profit on a 6-5 record, a result that looks clean on the surface but required four two-unit winners to offset three painful losses at elevated exposure. The card was built around six two-unit plays and five one-unit positions, and when the dust settled, the difference between a winning night and a red number came down to execution on the higher-confidence side. Jensen won four of his six two-unit bets, but the two that missed—Athletics at -108 and Guardians at -152—cost a combined 5.20 units and nearly sank the entire card.
The issue wasn’t volume alone; it was where the exposure landed. When higher-confidence positions miss, even a few correct calls may not be enough to save the card. Jensen needed the Braves, Angels, White Sox, Diamondbacks, Padres, and Tigers to carry the load, and fortunately, five of those six delivered. The Athletics and Guardians, however, were competitive losses that stung—both games decided by a single run, both featuring late-inning drama that went the wrong way.
Braves at Dodgers
Result: Won (+2.00u) | Braves 7, Dodgers 2
The Braves took care of business in Los Angeles, riding Bryce Elder’s dominant start—one hit allowed over 5 2/3 scoreless innings—to a comfortable 7-2 victory. Atlanta jumped ahead 4-0 in the second inning and never looked back. Mauricio Dubón’s three-run double was the big blow, and late home runs from Drake Baldwin and Matt Olson off Justin Wrobleski put the game out of reach. This was the second consecutive 7-2 win for the Braves in the series, and after backing Atlanta the day before, Jensen went right back to the well. The pick at +110 was a clean two-unit winner, and the Braves’ pitching dominance made it stress-free from the middle innings on.
Nationals at Marlins
Result: Lost (-0.86u) | Marlins 5, Nationals 2
The Nationals held a 2-2 tie into the eighth before Miami’s offense exploded for three runs. Christopher Morel’s go-ahead single off Gus Varland put the Marlins in front, and a pair of double steals—both involving Jakob Marsee—set the table for Heriberto Hernández’s two-run single that sealed it. Washington’s Luis García Jr. had a strong day at the plate with a triple, double, and RBI, but the bullpen couldn’t hold. This was a one-unit loss at +116, and while the Nationals were competitive, the eighth-inning collapse was the difference. Jensen had backed the Marlins the day before in a win, so this was a fade of Miami’s momentum—one that didn’t work out.
Athletics at Orioles
Result: Lost (-2.16u) | Orioles 2, Athletics 1
This was one of the two big exposure losses that nearly derailed the card. The Athletics led 1-0 after two innings but couldn’t add on, and Baltimore scratched across single runs in the third and sixth to take the lead. Chris Bassitt, who came in as a surprise reliever after Keegan Akin opened, threw six solid innings and limited Oakland to one run. The Orioles’ defense sealed it in the seventh when Leody Taveras threw out the potential tying run at the plate, and Seranthony Domínguez escaped a bases-loaded, no-out jam in the ninth to preserve the win. The Athletics had won the day before 6-2, but this was a one-run game that came down to execution, and Oakland didn’t have enough offense. At -108 and two units risked (2.16u), this was a costly variance loss.
Angels at Jays
Result: Won (+2.00u) | Angels 6, Blue Jays 1
The Angels snapped an eight-game road losing streak and a nine-game skid in Toronto with a dominant performance. Jo Adell hit two solo homers and added a double, while José Soriano struck out seven over 7 2/3 innings, allowing just one run on Kazuma Okamoto’s RBI double in the first. Los Angeles broke it open with four runs in the fifth, and Oswald Peraza added a two-run homer in the sixth. This was a bounce-back spot after the Angels were blown out 14-1 the day before, and Jensen had backed Toronto in that win. The fade worked perfectly at -116, and the two-unit win was a critical piece of the card’s positive finish.
Astros at Reds
Result: Lost (-1.92u) | Reds 5, Astros 0
The Astros were shut out in Cincinnati, managing just three hits against Andrew Abbott, who struck out five over six sharp innings. Spencer Steer homered, Elly De La Cruz had three hits and scored twice, and JJ Bleday delivered a two-run triple as the Reds cruised 5-0. Houston had no answer offensively, and the Reds won their second straight after an eight-game losing streak. Jensen had backed Cincinnati the day before in a 3-1 win, so this was a fade of the Reds’ momentum—a two-unit play at +104 that turned into a missed read. The Astros’ offense never showed up, and the shutout made this one non-competitive from the middle innings on.
Twins at Guardians
Result: Lost (-3.04u) | Twins 5, Guardians 4
This was the heaviest loss of the night and the one that nearly sank the card. The Guardians were backed at -152 for two units (3.04u risked), and they led 2-1 after three innings before Minnesota exploded for four runs in the fifth. Brooks Lee’s tiebreaking single was the key hit, and Kody Clemens had three hits including two doubles. Cleveland fought back with single runs in the sixth and eighth, and Brayan Rocchio went 4-for-4 with two runs, but the Guardians couldn’t complete the comeback. This was a competitive loss in a one-run game, but the fifth-inning collapse was the difference. Jensen had backed the Twins the day before in a 2-1 win, so this was a fade of Minnesota’s momentum—one that backfired in painful fashion.
Yankees at Brewers
Result: Lost (-1.22u) | Brewers 4, Yankees 3
The Yankees were swept in Milwaukee after Brice Turang hit a walk-off homer off David Bednar with two outs in the ninth. New York led 2-1 after two innings and 3-3 heading into the bottom of the ninth, but Bednar struck out the first two batters before Turang launched a 411-foot drive to center for his first career walk-off homer. Aaron Judge homered for the Yankees, but it wasn’t enough. This was a one-unit loss at -122, and while the Yankees were competitive, the walk-off made it a tough beat. Jensen had backed the Yankees the day before in a loss, so this was a continuation of a fade that didn’t work—Milwaukee completed the three-game sweep.
Mariners at Sox
Result: Won (+2.00u) | White Sox 2, Mariners 1
The White Sox won a tight one in Chicago, with Randal Grichuk’s solo homer tying the game and Drew Romo scoring the winning run in the eighth on a fly-out and overthrow by Randy Arozarena. Seattle loaded the bases with no outs in the ninth, but Seranthony Domínguez escaped the jam for his ninth save. This was a two-unit win at +108, and the White Sox’s ability to manufacture a run in the eighth and hold on in the ninth made it a clean winner. Jensen had backed the Under the day before in a 6-1 White Sox win, so this was a new angle on Chicago—one that paid off.
Mets at Diamondbacks
Result: Won (+2.00u) | Diamondbacks 5, Mets 1
The Diamondbacks rolled behind Eduardo Rodriguez, who came within two outs of his first career complete game. Rodriguez took a no-hitter into the sixth and allowed just four hits over 8 1/3 innings, striking out four. Ryan Waldschmidt had his first three big league RBIs, and Arizona scored two in the second and three in the sixth to pull away. The Mets managed just one run on Luis Torrens’ RBI double, and the last-place New York squad dropped to 0-5 on their nine-game road trip. This was a two-unit win at -112, and the Diamondbacks’ pitching dominance made it a clean winner. Jensen had backed the Mets the day before in a loss, so this was a fade of New York—one that worked perfectly.
Cardinals at Padres
Result: Won (+1.00u) | Padres 3, Cardinals 2 (10 innings)
The Padres rallied late to split the four-game series with St. Louis. Jordan Walker’s two-run homer in the fourth gave the Cardinals a 2-0 lead, and Kyle Leahy threw five shutout innings in relief. But Nick Castellanos tied it with a two-run, two-out homer in the ninth, and Manny Machado delivered a sacrifice fly in the tenth to win it. Walker Buehler pitched six solid innings for San Diego, and the Padres pulled into a tie with the Dodgers atop the NL West. This was a one-unit win at -136, and the late-inning comeback made it a dramatic finish. Jensen had backed the Cardinals the day before in a loss, so this was a fade of St. Louis—one that paid off in extra innings.
Tigers at Royals
Result: Won (+2.00u) | Tigers 6, Royals 3
The Tigers snapped a five-game losing streak behind Gage Workman’s first career homer, a two-run shot in the sixth that gave Detroit the lead for good. Workman had been called up from Triple-A Toledo hours earlier after Kerry Carpenter was placed on the injured list. Matt Vierling added a two-run double in the second, and Riley Greene reached safely four times. Kansas City scored two in the third and one in the fourth to tie it, but the Tigers pulled away with runs in the sixth and seventh. This was a two-unit win at +110, and the Tigers’ ability to break through after a rough stretch made it a clean winner.
Beer Money & Parlay Plays
Jensen’s side-play ledger went 1-0 on May 10, with the Phillies covering as a heavy favorite. These are lean recommendations with no units assigned.
Rockies at Phillies
Result: Won | Phillies 6, Rockies 0
Philadelphia shut out Colorado 6-0 in a dominant performance. The Phillies were chalky at -310, but the shutout made it a stress-free side play for anyone who included it in a parlay or small-stakes action.
Missed Reads: Astros (shutout, no offensive presence), Yankees (walk-off loss, swept)
Variance / Competitive Losses: Athletics (one-run loss, thrown out at plate in 7th), Guardians (one-run loss, fifth-inning collapse), Nationals (eighth-inning bullpen meltdown)
Clean Wins: Braves, Angels, White Sox, Diamondbacks, Padres, Tigers
The final tally was +1.8 units on a 6-5 card, but the path was anything but smooth. Jensen’s four two-unit winners—Braves, Angels, White Sox, Diamondbacks, and Tigers—combined for +8.00 units, while the two two-unit losses on the Athletics and Guardians cost 5.20 units. The Padres added another unit, and the three one-unit losses on the Nationals, Astros, and Yankees combined for -3.00 units. The difference between a winning night and a red number came down to execution on the higher-confidence plays, and fortunately, Jensen hit on four of six. The Athletics and Guardians were competitive one-run losses that could have gone either way, while the Astros and Yankees were missed reads that never looked competitive. The Nationals fell into the variance bucket with an eighth-inning bullpen collapse. Overall, this was a card that required strong execution on the two-unit side to overcome the losses, and Jensen delivered just enough to finish in the black.
