Nick Lodolo’s sinker is generating an xwOBA of .524 against — a number that sits uneasily inside a ballpark with a 1.10 run factor — yet the total is posted at 9 after two quiet finishes skewed the market’s memory. The recent scoring drought is real, but the starters who drove those outcomes aren’t on the mound today.
Nolan McLean vs Nick Lodolo: New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview
Two straight rough nights for New York have the market cooling on this Mets offense, and GABP is getting less credit than it deserves as a run environment today. The matchup today isn’t about who wins — it’s about how many runs score.
The total of 9 is a number that wants to stay quiet because Lodolo’s stuff looks deceptively fine from a distance. But his peripherals tell a different story: 5.21 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and 8 home runs surrendered in just 38 innings. That’s nearly a homer every five frames in a ballpark that already inflates run scoring. Meanwhile, McLean has been the more efficient arm this year, but this lineup can produce. The question isn’t who wins — it’s whether the two offenses combine to push past 9. I think they do.
The recent cold stretch for both offenses creates a narrative discount. The numbers project 9.9 combined runs, and with a park factor north of 1.0 and a leaky Lodolo on the hill, the lean is Over 9 as a small play.
Game Info & Betting Lines
- Date/Time: Wednesday, June 17, 2026 | 12:40 PM ET
- Venue: Great American Ball Park (Park Factor: 1.10 — hitter-friendly)
- TV: MLB.TV, Reds.TV, SNY
- Probable Starters: Nolan McLean (NYM) vs Nick Lodolo (CIN)
- Moneyline: New York Mets -134 / Cincinnati Reds +114
- Run Line: New York Mets -1.5 (+126) / Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (-152)
- Total: 9 (Over -110 / Under -110)
Why This Number Is Off
The market set this total at 9 largely on the back of what it saw Monday and Tuesday — a 12-0 Cincinnati blowout followed by a 5-3 finish. When you see back-to-back moderate-scoring games, oddsmakers suppress the total. That’s the logic here. But Monday’s 12-0 outcome was heavily starter-driven (Chase Burns at a 2.01 ERA is not today’s pitching environment), and Tuesday’s 5-3 game had Kodai Senga dealing with four walks in his first start back from the IL.
Today’s context is different. Lodolo’s sinker — his most-used pitch at 27.3% — is generating an xwOBA of .524 against it. That’s not a typo. His changeup, thrown 22.1% of the time, has a put-away rate of just 2.6%. His curveball is his best weapon at a 36% whiff rate, but a two-pitch pitcher in GABP with a HR/9 problem is not someone you build a low-total around.
The legitimate case for the under: both offenses are legitimately cold right now — the Mets have averaged 0 runs over their last three games in this dataset, and the Reds have been similarly flat. Bullpen variance is real. But the season-long run environment and Lodolo’s profile tilt this toward over territory more than the 9 acknowledges.
What Separates the Pitching
The gap between these two starters is real and measurable. McLean carries a 4.01 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over 76.1 innings — an efficient workload that shows durability and repeatability. His sinker (35.1% usage, 95.0 mph) generates weak contact with an xwOBA of .279, and his curveball at 38.2% whiff rate is a genuine out-pitch. His strikeout rate of 10.4 K/9 is elite for a sinker-heavy starter. The cutter (.406 xwOBA against) and sweeper (.361) can get hit, but the overall profile is a pitcher who limits damage.
Lodolo is in a different place entirely. His four-pitch mix leans on a sinker that hitters are absolutely teeing up — that .524 xwOBA against is a red flag regardless of park. His four-seamer sits at 94.2 mph with a .289 xwOBA, which is fine in isolation, but the changeup’s 2.6% put-away rate means he can’t finish hitters. When a starter can’t put hitters away with the change, counts extend, pitches accumulate, and he exits early — leaving the bullpen exposed.
For the Mets lineup, Juan Soto’s xwOBA of .455 overall and his .498 xwOBA vs right-handed pitching is the matchup the market is underweighting — Lodolo throws right, and Soto feasts on righties. A.J. Ewing is another name to watch here: his vsRHP xwOBA of .485 and a .333 clip in their brief BvP history tells you he’s comfortable in this matchup. Carson Benge leads off and carries a .399 xwOBA vs right-handed pitching — a solid number at the top of the order against a starter who has already surrendered 8 homers in 38 innings. These aren’t soft bats walking into a soft park.
The pitching gap favors McLean, but both starters are in a range where scoring happens. McLean creates quiet innings; Lodolo creates traffic.
The Pushback
Here’s where I slow down. Both offenses have been genuinely cold. The Mets were shut out in the series opener and held to three runs Tuesday. The Reds got handled by Arizona before this series and are dealing with the absence of Elly De La Cruz (IL, hamstring) — their most dangerous bat at .855 OPS with 12 home runs. That’s a real hole in the middle of their order. With Ke’Bryan Hayes also out (back), Cincinnati’s lineup has been reshuffled.
There’s also a daytime start to factor in — 12:40 PM ET at GABP in mid-June means humidity and heat that can actually suppress carry on the ball, working against the over in ways that night games don’t. And flat at -110, the juice isn’t giving me anything back. I’m not pretending this is a lock. The market is suppressing the total on recency, and I think that’s where the lean lives, but both teams have shown they can go quiet.
On the run line, I looked at the Mets -1.5 at +126, and while the pitching gap is real, I’d rather not need the two-run cushion to cash. The total is the cleaner expression of this lean. The moneyline at -134 exceeds the juice ceiling, which is why the Over 9 is the cleaner expression of this lean.
The Play
I’m not chasing a big number here. This is a lean, not a hammer. Lodolo’s sinker is getting crushed at an xwOBA of .524, his changeup can’t put hitters away, and he’s operating in a hitter-friendly environment with a HR/9 rate that should terrify anyone building a low-total case around him. The numbers say 9.9 combined runs. The line says 9. That gap is where the value is.
Bet: Over 9 (-110) — lean, small unit
