Quick Recap:
• Record: 5-4-1
• Units: +1.9
• Best Win: Under 7.5 (+2.0u)
• Tough Loss: Over 11.5 (-2.4u)
Joe Jensen closed June 22, 2026 at +1.9 Units on a 5-4-1 graded card, a net-positive result that required some navigation. The day’s construction leaned heavily on totals — unders in particular — and that framework carried the card. Where the damage came was on the moneyline side, specifically two favorites that failed to hold and one underdog play that ran into a buzzsaw. Unit exposure was fairly even across positions, which meant the wins and losses largely offset, with the totals edge providing the margin. It was not a dominant night, but the card finished in the black, and the key reads held where they needed to.
Yankees at Tigers
Pick: Under 8 | Result: Push | Final: Tigers 5, Yankees 3
The push came in at exactly eight runs combined — one of those nights where the line was right on the number. Framber Valdez was excellent, holding the Yankees to one run on four hits over six innings with eight strikeouts, outpitching Gerrit Cole in what was Detroit’s first win over Cole in a decade. The Tigers did the bulk of their damage in the third inning, plating three, and added single runs in the fourth and fifth to build the cushion. New York’s Amed Rosario provided a two-run homer in the seventh, but it wasn’t enough to threaten the total. After backing the Under 8.5 in the Reds-Yankees game the previous night, Jensen returned to the well in this spot — and while the push is a zero-unit result, the read was directionally sound. The 2.08u risked comes back, and the card moves on.
Royals at Rays
Pick: Under 7.5 | Result: Won | Final: Royals 2, Rays 1
A clean win. Michael Wacha was the story here — seven innings of one-run ball, six hits, one walk, five strikeouts, and a 0-for-7 line for Tampa Bay with runners in scoring position. Kansas City scored in the second and added another in the fifth, and that was all the offense either side could muster. The game finished at three total runs against a 7.5 number, making this one of the more comfortable under results of the night. Jensen had backed the Under 8 in the Nationals-Rays game previously, and this spot produced a similar pitching-dominant outcome. The +2.00u return on 2.48u risked at -124 was a well-earned result.
Rangers at Marlins
Pick: Under 8.5 | Result: Won | Final: Rangers 4, Marlins 3
Seven combined runs against an 8.5 number — another clean under. Texas got on the board with two runs in the fourth on Ezequiel Duran’s homer, Miami answered with solo runs in the fifth and sixth, and the Rangers added two more in the eighth to seal it. Brandon Nimmo went 3-for-3 with a walk and a stolen base to lead the Texas offense, but this was a low-scoring, well-pitched affair that never threatened the total. Worth noting: the previous bet in this matchup was an Over 8 in the Giants-Marlins game that lost — Jensen flipped the approach here and it paid off. The +2.00u return on 2.28u risked was a straightforward result.
Phillies at Nationals
Pick: Washington Nationals ML | Result: Won | Final: Nationals 4, Phillies 1
Foster Griffin made this one look easy. The Nationals’ starter went 7.1 innings, allowed one run on four hits, struck out nine, and didn’t issue a walk — his fourth straight start allowing one earned run or fewer over five-plus innings. Curtis Mead and Luis Garcia Jr. both homered, and Washington’s lineup added doubles from Dylan Crews, James Wood, and Keibert Ruiz. The Phillies never really threatened after Brandon Marsh’s solo shot in the seventh. At -112, backing Washington at home against a division rival was a measured play, and Griffin delivered. The +2.00u on 2.24u risked was a well-structured moneyline win.
Astros at Jays
Pick: Houston Astros ML | Result: Lost | Final: Blue Jays 4, Astros 2
The Astros came in off a win over Cleveland but couldn’t solve Toronto. The Blue Jays got production from Kazuma Okamoto — a homer and a double — and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. drove in a run, but the decisive blow was a seventh-inning sacrifice fly from pinch-hitter Myles Straw that gave Toronto the lead for good. Houston had Yordan Alvarez on base twice via walks but couldn’t push runs across when it mattered. At +108, this was a positive-odds play that didn’t convert — a competitive loss rather than a missed read. The Astros had the lineup to win this game; the execution wasn’t there. The -1.85u on 1.85u risked was the lightest loss of the card’s four graded losses.
Guardians at Sox
Pick: Cleveland Guardians ML | Result: Lost | Final: White Sox 6, Guardians 5
This one stung. Cleveland led heading into the ninth, scored twice in the top half to take a 5-4 lead, and then watched Cade Smith give it back immediately. Braden Montgomery drew a walk, Tristan Peters doubled, and Sam Antonacci delivered a walk-off two-run single to hand Chicago its sixth walk-off win of the season. The Guardians were the better team for most of the night — Brayan Rocchio went 3-for-5 — but the bullpen couldn’t close it out. This is a variance loss, not a missed read. Cleveland was in position to win and didn’t. The -2.32u on 2.32u risked was the largest single loss of the card and the one that most directly offset the day’s wins.
Dodgers at Twins
Pick: Minnesota Twins ML | Result: Lost | Final: Dodgers 2, Twins 1
Byron Buxton homered in the first to give Minnesota an early lead, and for a stretch it looked like the underdog play might hold. But Shohei Ohtani answered with a leadoff homer, and Freddie Freeman broke a sixth-inning tie with his 13th of the season off Eric Lauer, who threw six hitless innings after opener Will Klein allowed Buxton’s blast. The Twins had the lead and the crowd, but the Dodgers’ pitching combination was simply too much. At +134, this was a reasonable underdog play — the Twins had won their previous game and the Dodgers were coming off back-to-back losses. The result was a competitive 2-1 game that went the wrong way. The -1.49u on 1.49u risked was a manageable loss given the positive odds structure.
Sox at Rockies
Pick: Over 11.5 | Result: Lost | Final: Rockies 3, Red Sox 2
Five total runs against an 11.5 number at Coors Field. This one was not competitive from a betting standpoint. Both offenses were largely dormant — Boston scored two in the sixth, and Colorado answered with a Jake McCarthy three-run triple in the ninth off Aroldis Chapman to walk it off. The game went eight innings of near-silence before the Rockies’ rally. Jensen had cashed the Over 11.5 in the Pirates-Rockies game the night before, but this Coors spot played nothing like that one. The -2.44u on 2.44u risked was the largest dollar loss of the card and the clearest case of a read that didn’t connect.
Orioles at Angels
Pick: Under 9 | Result: Won | Final: Orioles 6, Angels 1
Kyle Bradish was dominant — eight shutout innings, nine strikeouts, six hits, one walk. Taylor Ward homered against his former team to open the scoring, Coby Mayo added a three-run shot in the fourth, and Baltimore’s offense did enough to make this a comfortable win without threatening the total. Seven combined runs against a 9-number was a clean result. Bradish’s performance was the anchor — 21 strikeouts over his last two starts coming in, and he was sharp all night. The +2.00u on 2.44u risked was a well-earned return.
Braves at Padres
Pick: Under 7.5 | Result: Won | Final: Padres 1, Braves 0
The cleanest result of the night. Michael King went seven strong innings, Manny Machado’s fourth-inning solo homer was the only run scored, and Atlanta’s offense — despite Austin Riley going 3-for-4 — couldn’t push anything across. One total run against a 7.5 number. Jensen had backed the Under 7.5 in the Padres-Rangers game the previous night and returned to the same number here with San Diego at home. King’s first win since May 18 came in dominant fashion, and the Braves’ recent struggles (eight losses in 11 games) were on full display. The +2.00u on 2.40u risked closed the card on a high note.
Beer Money & Parlay Plays
Side plays went 0-1 on the night — these are lean recommendations only, with no units assigned and no impact on the official record or unit total.
Diamondbacks at Cardinals
The lean was Over 8.5 at -114 in Arizona at St. Louis, but the game finished 3-2 Cardinals — five total runs, well short of the number. A low-scoring affair that never gave the over a real chance to develop.
Missed Reads: Over 11.5 (Red Sox at Rockies)
Variance / Competitive Losses: Houston Astros ML (Astros at Jays), Cleveland Guardians ML (Guardians at Sox), Minnesota Twins ML (Dodgers at Twins)
Clean Wins: Under 7.5 (Royals at Rays), Under 8.5 (Rangers at Marlins), Washington Nationals ML (Phillies at Nationals), Under 9 (Orioles at Angels), Under 7.5 (Braves at Padres)
The graded card finished at +1.9 Units on a 5-4-1 record, and the structure of the day tells the story: five under plays went 4-0-1, generating the bulk of the positive return, while the moneyline side went 1-3. The Guardians walk-off loss and the Coors over miss were the two plays that cost the most in units, and both came in different ways — one a bullpen collapse, one a read that never had a chance. The underdog Twins play and the Astros ML were competitive losses that fell within normal variance. On balance, the totals framework carried the card, and the positive close on the Braves-Padres and Orioles-Angels unders gave the night a clean finish.
