Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans
Sunday, August 23, 2026
8:00 PM ET, Nissan Stadium
Sunday night’s preseason matchup at Nissan Stadium has one of the more decisive line moves of the entire Week 2 board, and the sharp money has been pouring in on the home team.
The Titans are 4.5-point home favorites with a total of 37.5. This game opened with Tennessee as a 1.5-point favorite. Since then, the spread has moved a full three points toward the Titans, and the total has dropped a point to 37.5. When a preseason spread moves that decisively in favor of the home team, professional bettors are seeing something specific about how these two teams are constructed heading into this game, and both the coaching angle and the Week 1 evidence back it up.
Let’s start with Robert Saleh.
Saleh is making his second game as the Titans head coach after being hired this offseason. He spent 2021 through 2024 as the New York Jets head coach and served as the San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator during their 2025 Super Bowl run. What makes Saleh worth betting on in preseason is his historical approach — his career preseason record as a head coach is 10-2-1 straight up and 10-3 against the spread. That’s one of the best preseason ATS records of any active head coach in the NFL. Saleh treats preseason like it matters. He plays his guys, he calls his game, and he tends to win.
His Week 1 debut with the Titans backed that up. Tennessee traveled to San Francisco and beat the 49ers 19-13. The Titans rushed for 167 yards and controlled the game from start to finish, showing exactly the kind of physical identity Saleh has always built his defenses around. Now he’s at home in his first Nashville game as the Titans head coach, and he’s told reporters his starters will play “25-30 snaps” — essentially a full half. That’s aggressive preseason usage that positions the Titans to dominate early.
On the Seahawks side, Mike Macdonald is entering year three coming off Super Bowl LX. The reigning champs are 0-1 in preseason after losing 17-7 at home to the Cowboys in Week 1. That’s the problem — Seattle’s Week 1 was ugly. The Seahawks generated just 156 total yards and 49 passing yards against Dallas, with Macdonald himself expressing disappointment about “operational processes and finishing plays.” When a Super Bowl-winning head coach uses that language after a preseason loss, it typically means starters see even more restricted snap counts the following week to preserve them for the regular season.
That’s the fundamental mismatch here. The visiting team is running out a limited starter rotation coming off a poor performance, while the home team is running out a full half of starter snaps under a coach who has one of the best preseason coaching records in football.
The offensive numbers from 2025 back up the read. Seattle’s 142.7 passer rating when trailing inside 4 minutes was the highest in the NFL, meaning their offense can score when the game gets desperate — but preseason with backups isn’t a spot where those late-game desperation drives materialize. Tennessee’s offensive issue in 2025 was scoring touchdowns in the receiving game (15 was fewest in the NFL), but this preseason they’ve established a ground-and-pound identity with Ward running Saleh’s system.
Joint practices between the two teams happened earlier this week, which typically means Saturday’s game is more of an evaluation exercise. But when one side (Tennessee) has aggressively confirmed a half of starter snaps for its healthy QB and the other side (Seattle) is trying to figure out why its offense couldn’t move the ball, the aggressive team tends to dominate. That’s exactly what the market is pricing in with the 4.5-point spread.
Laying 4.5 in preseason is always something to consider carefully, and preseason spreads that big can flip on garbage-time possessions. But the aligned line movement, the Titans’ Week 1 dominance, Seattle’s Week 1 struggles, and Saleh’s coaching pedigree all point in the same direction.
I looked at the total too. Both Week 1 games went Under and the total dropped a point to 37.5, so there’s some case for the Under. But the side has clearer coaching-based data supporting the home team.
The Pick: Tennessee Titans -4.5
