Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers Prediction
Revenge AND Redemption
Emotion should not play a part in your handicapping process.
If a team loses your money you shouldn’t bet against them in their next game just because you want to get paybacks.
Like I always say, “Revenge is not a club in the handicapper’s bag.”
But, easier said than done.
It’s natural to want revenge.
Better to offer an opportunity for redemption.
Example – earlier this week I took a Caitlin Clark prop bet, Over 21′ pts.
She was sitting on 21 with 30 seconds left in the game when she got fouled and went to the free-throw line to shoot two.
I only need one.
She’s Caitlin Clark, the sharpshooter.
I’m going to win, yes?
No. She misses both.
Did I go for revenge the next night, and bet her to go Under?
No.
I gave her and her team a chance for redemption and used the Over in their game against the Chicago Sky.
Clark scored THIRTY SEVEN points and the game sailed over.
On Friday I’m offering Houston the same shot at redemption.
The Texans screwed me in my last pick.
How many ways can you lose one ball game?
Houston blew an early 17-0 lead.
Houston blew a 20-3 halftime lead.
With a little over a minute to go, Houston failed to convert on second and one. A first down would have meant they could take a knee as the Raiders didn’t have enough timeouts left to prevent the game from ending.
Then Houston failed to convert on 3rd and one, again failing to put the Raiders away.
Instead of going for it on 4th and one and ending the game the Texans opted to punt, and every sports bettor watching the game knew exactly what was going to happen next – the dreaded prevent defense was going to enter the picture.
The Texans let Carolina methodically work their way down the field and score the winning TD with just 14 seconds left on the clock.
And that one play tagged me with a loss on the side and total.
Not counting the push, I’ve made four NFL preseason bets. I’m 1-3. (The regular season hasn’t even started yet and I already hate the NFL and wish I had a 65 game college slate to choose from.)
Two of the three losses came with just 14 seconds left on the game clock.
One came with ONE second left on the clock!
One of the three I lost by one point.
Another I lost by the hook.
But this week the pendulum starts to swing back my way.
Going into week two, Houston coach DeMeco Ryan’s preseason record was:
7-3 SU, 70%
6-4 ATS, 60%
1-9 Ov/Un, a 90% Fade
He’s now at:
7-4 SU, 70%
6-5 ATS, 60%
2-9 Ov/Un
Houston is now 0-2 for this preseason.
I think the last second loss to the lowly Raiders has left a bad taste in Houston head coach DeMeco Ryan’s mouth, one that he wants to wipe out before the regular season starts.
Ryan’s not going to want to enter the regular season after going winless in the preseason, even though the games are meaningless.
I think that spells trouble for Carolina this week.
Coming into this preseason under head coach Dave Canales, Carolina had lost five of six preseason games. It might be safe to say he doesn’t put a lot of emphasis on winning in the preseason.
But the Panthers have over performed this preseason. After their last second win over Arizona in the Hall of Fame game, they split their next two.
They come into this one at 2-1, making them 3-6 SU over the past few seasons.
Despite their 2026 records, Ryan is a winning coach in the preseason, Canales is a losing coach.
This week, the natural order of things will be restored.
The Texans will redeem themselves for the boneheaded loss they cost me last week AND I’ll get a measure of revenge against Carolina for that last second lost they tagged me with in the Hall of Fame game.
Friday’s contest opened with 0-2 Houston as a short price Rd Fav over the 2-1 Hm team.
Joe Public is going to look at that and think, “Grab the Hm team with the points.”
And sure enough, though Hou -1 is still the common number, you can now get it at pick ’em.
The line is moving in my favor so I’ll wait to buy this one.
My play: Houston (wait to buy)
