Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers
Thursday, October 29, 2026
8:15 PM ET, Lambeau Field (Prime Video)
The Packers are 3.5-point favorites over the Panthers with a total of 47.5, and Green Bay is around -190 on the moneyline. My play is the Under 47.5 (-105).
Everybody wants to sell you this game as the league’s worst run offense against the league’s worst run defense, a Thursday night track meet waiting to happen. The market bought it. The total sat at 45.5 over the summer, reopened between 46.5 and 47.5 after Week 7, and got pushed to 47.5 and even 48 Sunday night. I’m going the other way, because the teams actually taking the field look a lot more like a 23-19 slog than a shootout.
Green Bay’s offense moves the ball and then forgets how to finish
Start with the Packers, who have gone Under in five of seven games. Their last four Unders landed at 31, 38, 36 and 37 total points. That isn’t bad luck. That’s who they are.
Jordan Love can sling it, but the offense stalls constantly. Green Bay ranks 28th in success rate, which tracks how often a play actually keeps the offense on schedule. It’s just as shaky on third down, and it scores touchdowns on only 46.2% of red-zone trips, 30th in the league. The ground game is the worst in football at 2.9 yards per carry.
Now it gets uglier up front. Both centers went down in Detroit: Sean Rhyan has a high ankle sprain and isn’t expected to play, and Jacob Monk is on IR. That leaves John Williams, a 2025 seventh-rounder who had never taken an NFL offensive line snap until Sunday, in line to snap the ball on a short week. On Monday’s estimated report, guard Travis Glover was a non-participant, Aaron Banks was limited, and WR Matthew Golden (shoulder/foot) was also a DNP. Josh Jacobs is back, but 11 carries for 36 yards in his season debut doesn’t scream breakout behind a rebuilt interior.
And when Green Bay stalls, it trots out a kicking game hitting 68.75% of its field goals (28th). Rookie Trey Smack missed from 26 and 35 in the 20-17 walk-off loss at Detroit, with the 35-yarder officially blocked. LaFleur is sticking with him. Drives that end in coin-flip field goals are an Under bettor’s best friend.
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Carolina’s best unit runs straight into Green Bay’s
Carolina’s offense has been better than last week’s 43-13 home beatdown by Tampa Bay suggests. Bryce Young came into Week 7 leading the NFL in passing yards per game, and the Panthers rank ninth in EPA per play, the stat that measures how much each snap helps a team’s scoring chances. Then Young threw two picks, lost a strip-sack fumble for a touchdown and took five sacks against the Bucs.
The problem is who’s next. Green Bay’s defense ranks fourth in EPA per play allowed and sixth against dropbacks. It has nine interceptions and leads the league with 1.9 takeaways per game. Since getting torched 35-14 by Atlanta in its last Thursday night game, that defense has been nasty for four straight weeks, even without Micah Parsons, who’s still on PUP and hasn’t been designated to return.
Carolina’s protection is a mess, too. RT Taylor Moton is on IR with a fractured fibula, so rookie Monroe Freeling steps back in, and both starting guards, Damien Lewis (knee) and Torricelli Simpkins III (ankle), were listed as non-participants on Monday’s estimated report. Young is also new to the report with a knee issue, though he was listed as a full participant.
The Panthers’ road games tell the same story: all three went Under, and none topped 39 total points. Their pass defense, missing Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson, still holds opponents to 60.5% completions (sixth) and 6.2 yards per pass (fifth). Love isn’t getting anything cheap through the air.
The case against me
I’m not pretending this is risk-free. Carolina’s run defense is dead last at 5.2 yards per carry allowed, and Tampa Bay just ran for 258 yards on it. If Jacobs finds a crease and Green Bay finally gets the ground game going, 30 points is on the table. These are also two of the least consistent teams in the league. Carolina has already played a 59-37 game, and both teams rank among the most penalized in football, which keeps drives alive. Green Bay’s ball-hawking defense cuts both ways, since one pick-six blows up any total. Practice reports so far are only Monday estimates, so check the Wednesday designations for the guards on both sides and for Parsons.
The weather won’t bail out either side. It looks like a calm, clear night at Lambeau, around 56 degrees at kickoff with almost no wind, though morning rain could leave the grass a little damp.
Projected score: Packers 23, Panthers 19. Green Bay’s defense wins the night, its offense settles for field goals again, and two beat-up offensive lines keep the scoreboard sane. Last year’s meeting at Lambeau finished 16-13. This one gets a little louder, but not 48 loud.
The Pick: Under 47.5
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