Washington State Cougars at Washington Huskies
Sunday, September 6, 2026
4:00 PM ET, Husky Stadium
The 118th Apple Cup kicks off Sunday afternoon in Seattle with Washington laying 23.5 points at home. The value here is on the road rival getting the massive number of points.
Twenty-three and a half points is a lot in a rivalry game. History says so. Washington State has won two of the last five meetings between these teams, and both of those wins came in Seattle. The Cougars beat Washington 40-13 at Husky Stadium in 2021 and won 24-19 at Lumen Field in Seattle in 2024. Rivalry games don’t respect big spreads. Emotion, familiarity, and the willingness to play desperate football tend to keep these matchups closer than talent gaps suggest.
Washington did win last year’s Apple Cup 59-24 in Pullman. That was a 35-point margin, and it’s the reason the market has priced this year’s Apple Cup at nearly four touchdowns. But that game was on Washington State’s home field with the Huskies playing their best football of the season — they finished 9-4 and won their bowl game 38-10 over Boise State. This year’s Apple Cup is at Washington’s home stadium, which typically means bigger crowds and less desperate Washington State play. But it also means the Huskies won’t have the same motivation to run up the score on an instate rival they’ve dominated recently. Washington’s coaching staff will manage the game to win, not to punish.
The Cougars enter this game with a completely rebuilt program. Kirby Moore takes over as head coach in his first game. New offensive coordinator Matt Miller and new defensive coordinator Trent Bray are also making their WSU debuts. And Caden Pinnick, a UC Davis transfer, is the new starting quarterback. That’s a lot of new faces, and it’s exactly the kind of setup that produces execution issues in Week 1. But it also gives Kirby Moore a chip on his shoulder. First-year head coaches in rivalry games don’t play scared. They coach aggressive. They call unusual plays. They roll the dice.
That’s how upsets happen.
The Washington State roster still has enough talent to compete. WSU won 7-8 games last year with a similar core. Their offense might struggle in the first half against Washington’s returning defense, but by the fourth quarter, with the game already decided, backup rotations for Washington will be on the field. That’s where Washington State can put up their garbage-time scoring to close the gap on the spread.
Look at the specific trend from 2025 — Washington State went 1-0 as a 23.5+ point underdog last season. Small sample, but it shows they’ve been in this exact spot before and covered. In a broader sense, WSU went 9-4 against the spread across 13 games. That’s a team that consistently plays better than expectations, and consistently keeps games closer than the market projects.
Demond Williams Jr. is the reason Washington is such a heavy favorite. He’s a returning starter, he’s elite in the QBR ratings, and he’s the engine of a Washington offense that scored 30+ in nine of their 13 games last year. But the Huskies also weren’t a dominant cover team — they went 6-6 against the spread across 12 games in 2025. Even when they won, they didn’t consistently cover big spreads. And this is a rivalry game where opposing coaches typically save some tricks for their biggest matchups.
The 23.5 points is a lot in an Apple Cup that features a first-year WSU head coach with something to prove and a Washington team likely to ease up in the second half. Getting nearly four touchdowns as a road underdog in a rivalry game is exactly the value spot to target.
I looked at the total too. There’s a case for the Over given Washington’s offensive output, but WSU’s new offense may struggle to keep pace, which could keep the total closer to the number. The side has the cleaner read here.
The Pick: Washington State Cougars +23.5
