Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks
Tuesday, October 20, 2026
7:00 PM ET, Madison Square Garden
The Knicks are 4.5-point favorites over the 76ers, and the total sits at 232.5. My play is the Knicks -4.5 (-110 at DraftKings), and BetRivers is dealing -109 if you shop.
Philadelphia spent the summer collecting headlines. New York spent it keeping the band together. On opening night, I’ll take the band.
The banner goes up, and the line comes down. The Knicks raise their first championship banner in 53 years before tip. Then LeBron James makes his Sixers debut alongside Jaylen Brown (28.7 points a night in Boston last season), Tyrese Maxey, Joel Embiid and VJ Edgecombe, and the betting public fell hard. This game opened Knicks -5.5. With 76% of the spread money at Action Network on Philadelphia, it has slid to 4.5. That’s exactly where I want to buy the champs.
Five stars, one preseason game together. Philly’s projected starting five played exactly one preseason game as a unit. Nick Nurse was honest about it Monday: “It’s hard to know, until we get there.” He also admitted the offense has looked “a little mistimed and out of rhythm.” Brown put it more bluntly: “We’re not where we want to be right now.” The Knicks bring back every piece of a title rotation except backup center Mitchell Robinson. Last season they ran the league’s third-best offense and seventh-best defense. Philly finished 16th on both ends.
Jalen Brunson is going to go find Joel Embiid
This is the matchup that decides the night. In May’s second-round sweep, the Knicks scored 146.5 points per 100 possessions with Embiid on the floor, per Locked On Knicks host Gavin Schall. That’s nearly 27 points better than New York’s regular-season offense, which was already elite. Brunson dragged him into the pick-and-roll over and over. In space, Embiid had no chance. If he sat back, Brunson fired away from deep.
Nurse says Embiid is “ready to go,” and he’s healthier than he was last spring. The safety net behind him is gone, though. Backup center Adem Bona is questionable with a sprained foot. Ariel Hukporti tore his Achilles in the first preseason game, Tacko Fall is out, and Dominick Barlow will miss at least two weeks with a back injury. Two early whistles on Embiid, and Philly is playing small against Karl-Anthony Towns and his 11.9 boards a game.
The BEST 2026 Basketball Bonus: Deposit $100 to $1000 and get a 75% real cash bonus when you deposit using Bitcoin at Bovada Sportsbook!
Philly’s leaky glass is a tax the Knicks love to collect
The Sixers ranked 26th in defensive rebounding last season, giving opponents more than 27% of their own misses back. New York ranked fifth on the offensive glass. Robinson is in Boston now, and Mike Brown’s challenge to the room was clear: “everybody else has to give a little bit more defensively, and has to give a little bit more when it comes to offensive and defensive rebounding.” Andre Drummond, who pulled down 8.4 rebounds a night for these Sixers last year, now does his dirty work for the other side.
Then there’s the Garden itself. The Knicks went 32-17 against the spread at home last season, playoffs included, and won those games by an average of 10.4 points.
How this blows up in my face
Ring nights are a classic flat spot, and Mike Brown knows it: “there’s a part of you that wants to keep celebrating, but we’ve got to turn it off.” Embiid is skipping the show entirely: “I guess I’ll be in the locker room.”
Philly also won both of its regular-season trips to MSG last year, 116-107 and 130-119. The talent is real, and Schall himself called Edgecombe “an extremely uncomfortable hiding place for Brunson” on defense. Drummond is a big step down from Robinson as a Plan B against Embiid. If Anfernee Simons (questionable, hamstring) plays, Philly adds a 38.5% three-point shooter off the bench. A 232.5 total leaves room for a backdoor, too. I’d play this up to -5, lean it at -5.5 and pass at -6 or higher.
Final score projection: Knicks 117, 76ers 110.
Maxey keeps Philly close for a half. Then New York’s bench, the offensive glass and Brunson’s Embiid hunting take over the fourth, and the champs open their title defense with a win.
The Pick: New York Knicks -4.5 (-110)
Back the champs while the new banner is still swaying in the rafters and bring some extra bankroll into Tuesday night. New players at MyBookie Sportsbook get a 100% REAL CASH bonus on a first deposit of $100 to $300 with promo code PREDICT100. That’s a FREE way to bet the Knicks -4.5 and the rest of your opening-week NBA picks.
75% Cash up to $750 (With BTC)
