Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs
Tuesday, October 20, 2026
9:30 PM ET, Frost Bank Center
San Antonio is a 1.5-point favorite at most books, and the total sits at 232.5, with BetMGM hanging 233.5. My play is Under 233.5 (-110) at BetMGM.
The last time these two shared a floor, Victor Wembanyama was walking out of Oklahoma City with a 111-103 Game 7 win that sent the defending champs home. Five months later the rematch kicks off the season, and the market wants fireworks. I want the other side of that ticket.
The total got bet up for the wrong reasons
This number opened around 230 and has climbed as high as 233.5, and the injury report doesn’t explain it. Chet Holmgren shook off his preseason quad issue and is off the report. San Antonio is missing Tobias Harris (calf) and rookie Jayden Quaintance, and neither one played a minute for last year’s Spurs.
The thing is, these teams play suffocating defense. Oklahoma City had the best defense in the league last season, giving up just 107.7 points per 100 possessions. San Antonio ranked third at 111.3. Neither team plays fast, either. Both sat right around the league average in pace, so there’s no track meet built into this one.
Then there’s the history. These teams met 12 times last season, and those games averaged 222.5 combined points. Only four of the 12 cleared 233.5, and one of those needed double overtime. In San Antonio it happened once in five tries.
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San Antonio’s three-guard experiment walks right into OKC’s hands
Mitch Johnson is opening the season with De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper starting together next to Devin Vassell and Wembanyama. It’s a fun idea with almost no track record. That trio played only 69 minutes together last season and got outscored by 47 points. Fox didn’t sugarcoat what it will take: “a lot of how special that first group can be, it’s going to be predicated on how we shoot the ball.”
That’s a problem, because Fox and Castle both shot 33.2% from three last season, below the league average. Oklahoma City will happily back off those two and clog the lane. This is the defense that led the NBA in deflections, ranked second in forced turnovers (16.7 a game) and turned those takeaways into a league-high 22 points a night.
Wemby takes away the second chances. Oklahoma City ranked 28th in grabbing its own misses last season. Now it runs into Wembanyama’s 3.1 blocks a night and a Spurs team that led the league in defensive rebounding. When OKC misses, it rarely gets another shot.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is still the two-time reigning MVP and will get his 30. He also shot just 40.9% from the field and 28.6% from deep against this defense in the conference finals. San Antonio held him to 25.9 a game, well below his regular-season scoring.
The case against me
This isn’t the beat-up Thunder team San Antonio saw in May. Jalen Williams (17.1 points a game) and Ajay Mitchell played only three games each in that series, and both are healthy now. OKC also traded Lu Dort, its best on-ball defender, so the league’s top defense could take a step back early. Both offenses ranked in the top seven in efficiency last year. If the threes fall on opening night, this can get away from me.
A near pick’em also carries overtime risk, and SGA lives at the free-throw line, so a whistle-happy crew could pad this total in a hurry. I’d play this Under down to 232, call it a lean at 231 or 231.5, and pass at 230.5 or lower, so skip Hard Rock’s 230.5.
Projected score: Spurs 114, Thunder 110. Both stars earn every bucket, and the Spurs, who went 4-1 against OKC at home last season, make the plays late. That’s 224 total points, comfortably under the number.
The Pick: Under 233.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
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