Iowa at Minnesota
Saturday, October 24, 2026
3:30 PM ET, Huntington Bank Stadium
Iowa is a 6.5-point road favorite with a total of 40.5. My play is Iowa -6.5.
Floyd of Rosedale is a 21-inch bronze hog, and Iowa has gotten very comfortable keeping it. The Hawkeyes have won 10 of the last 11 meetings and five straight in Minneapolis. Minnesota hasn’t beaten Iowa at home since 2014. That streak isn’t luck. It comes from a big mismatch at the line of scrimmage, and that mismatch is bigger than ever this season.
The run game gap is massive. Iowa is averaging 6.09 yards per carry, third-best in the country. Its defense is allowing 2.51 per carry, fifth-best. Minnesota is averaging 3.66 yards a carry, 117th nationally. Iowa’s defense is built to stop the run, and the Gophers can’t run. So Minnesota will have to throw the ball, and that brings us to the other problem.
Drake Lindsey is fighting his turnovers. Lindsey has been decent overall (1,335 yards, nine touchdowns) but has thrown five interceptions, and P.J. Fleck spent part of Monday explaining them. “We just can’t turn the ball over, and a throwaway is a really good play,” Fleck said. Iowa’s defense is allowing 14.5 points per game and ranks sixth nationally with 3.17 sacks per game. It makes you go 12 plays for a field goal, and that’s a tough way for a one-dimensional offense to keep up. Last year’s meeting ended 41-3.
Purdue just showed how to do it. The last time Minnesota took the field, Purdue’s Fame Ijeboi ran for 195 yards and three touchdowns in a 41-13 rout. Fleck said “we got beat and also beat ourselves at the same time.” Iowa’s version of Ijeboi is Kamari Moulton, who’s averaging 6.8 yards a carry and just ran for 208 at Washington. Iowa piled up 263 rushing yards in that game. Minnesota’s run defense sits around the middle of the country at 3.93 yards per carry allowed, and it hasn’t seen a downhill attack like this one.
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The quarterback question doesn’t scare me. Kirk Ferentz is starting Jeremy Hecklinski over a fully healthy Hank Brown. “It’s not a coin toss, but it’s awfully close,” Ferentz said. Hecklinski threw for 202 yards and three touchdowns in his first start. Iowa just needs him to stay out of trouble and hit play-action when Minnesota crowds the box, and so far he’s thrown one interception all year. Brown is right behind him if things go sideways.
Minnesota’s offensive line keeps changing. Center Ashton Beers is out for the year, guard Jaden Ball missed the last two games, and the Gophers have used three different starting lines in their first five games. Their pass protection has held up, allowing under a sack per game. But you have to run the ball to win this game, and a reshuffled line against Iowa’s front is a tough ask.
Where this goes wrong
Totals in the low 40s make every point count, and 7 is the number that matters. A backdoor field goal or one Iowa turnover can turn a comfortable win into a push or a loss. Minnesota has some things working for it. It’s 3-1 against the spread at home, it’s off a bye, it’s a perfect 11-for-11 on field goals, and its pass defense ranks ninth in the country. It also beat Michigan and Washington, two teams Iowa only beat by a combined 18 points. Iowa doesn’t run up scores, and Ferentz may well be content with a 10-point win. Lay -6.5 if you can get it. I’d still play -7, but I’m out above that.
Iowa runs it, keeps the clock moving, and wins the field position battle all afternoon. The pig goes back to Iowa City.
Projected score: Iowa 24, Minnesota 13.
The Pick: Iowa -6.5
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