USC at Wisconsin
Saturday, October 24, 2026
7:30 PM ET, Camp Randall Stadium
USC is a 3-point road favorite at Wisconsin, and the total is 49.5. My play is USC -3.
The last time USC played a football game at Camp Randall, it was 1965. USC’s first trip back in 61 years brings a rested roster, a top-two passer in yards and an opponent that just threw for 66 yards in a loss at UCLA. That’s how I’m handicapping this one.
Wisconsin is trying to win with one arm tied behind its back. Colton Joseph went 6-of-16 for 66 yards in Pasadena and was also the Badgers’ leading rusher, with 18 carries for 71 yards and their only touchdown. Wisconsin ran 49 plays to UCLA’s 71 and had the ball for under 23 minutes. That isn’t a one-week fluke. The Badgers rank outside the top 100 nationally in success rate, which is a fancy way of saying they lose the down-to-down battle almost every week. They also play at one of the 10 slowest paces in the country. Falling behind is a nightmare for a team built that way.
The offensive line is a jigsaw puzzle with missing pieces. Center Austin Kawecki broke his hand, so Stylz Blackmon slid over to snap and PJ Wilkins moved to right guard. Wilkins has allowed a team-high 13 pressures this season. UCLA saw it on film and blitzed on 76% of Wisconsin’s dropbacks. Expect USC to copy that homework.
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USC shows up fresh and loaded. Lincoln Riley called this the healthiest his team has been all year after the bye. Jayden Maiava has 2,045 passing yards, 18 touchdowns and just three picks, and the Trojans lead the country in first downs. They stay ahead of the sticks on 52% of their plays, seventh-best in FBS. They also just won at Penn State in a white-out, so a loud Camp Randall night isn’t new territory. Even Luke Fickell isn’t pretending otherwise: “I mean, they have thrown the ball exceptionally well, and I don’t know that that would surprise you.”
The Badgers’ defense will make USC earn it. Wisconsin allows 16.7 points and just 4.32 yards per play, ninth-best in the nation. That’s the reason this is a field goal and not a touchdown. But that defense just let a backup quarterback convert 13 of 20 third downs. A good defense can’t carry a team forever when its offense keeps handing the ball back after three plays.
Why I could be wrong. USC is 2-5 against the spread this year, so the market has been too high on this team for two months. The Trojans’ defense gives up nearly six yards a snap and about 239 passing yards a game. If Joseph gets clean pockets, he can make plays with his arm and legs. Wind is the other wild card. One forecast calls for gusts near 30 mph, which would hurt the team that throws it better. And -3 sits right on the key number. I’m fine at 3; at -3.5 it drops to a lean, and I’d pass at -4.
I keep coming back to the same picture: a USC offense that moves the chains against good defenses, facing a Wisconsin offense that can’t throw its way out of a hole. Riley’s team builds a lead, and the Badgers aren’t equipped to chase.
Projected score: USC 27, Wisconsin 20
The Pick: USC -3
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