Houston Rockets at Atlanta Hawks
Saturday, October 24, 2026
8:30 PM ET, State Farm Arena, Atlanta
The Hawks are 1.5-point favorites over the Rockets, and the total sits at 230. My play is the Hawks -1.5 (-110).
Two unbeaten teams, both playing their second game in two nights. On the surface that sounds even. It isn’t. One of these teams spent Friday night in a 48-minute fistfight in Austin, and the other spent the fourth quarter watching from the bench.
Atlanta barely broke a sweat on Friday. The Hawks beat Charlotte 128-81, the largest win in franchise history. They forced 27 turnovers, and Dyson Daniels had 7 steals by himself.
The best part for Atlanta wasn’t the margin. It was the minutes. Jalen Johnson led the starters with 29, and Daniels, CJ McCollum and Onyeka Okongwu all played 23 or fewer. That’s a light night before a back-to-back.
Houston emptied the tank. The Rockets earned a terrific 114-110 win over the Spurs, and it took everything. Amen Thompson blocked Victor Wembanyama’s tying layup attempt in the final second, Alperen Sengun scored 29, and Kevin Durant added 20 in his return to Austin. Durant logged 37 minutes. Sengun and Thompson each played 36.
That game tipped at 9:30 PM ET. Then came a flight to Atlanta for another night game. Houston went 7-7 in the second game of back-to-backs last season, according to the team’s game notes, so this isn’t a group that falls apart on tired legs. It’s just a tougher spot than the one Atlanta has.
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The turnover battle is where I see this game swinging. Atlanta forced turnovers at the sixth-highest rate in the league last season, per Basketball Reference. Houston gave the ball away more than most, ranking 23rd in offensive turnover rate. Tired legs lead to lazy passes, and the Hawks have the hands to punish them. They piled up 17 steals on Friday.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker is also rolling. He dropped 31 in the opener at Orlando, a 132-125 win, and he scored 20 or more in both meetings with Houston last season.
Houston’s best counter is the glass. The Rockets led the NBA in offensive rebound rate last season, and second chances are how a slower team steals games. That’s a real weapon against a Hawks group missing big man Mouhamed Gueye (foot fracture) and rookie Henri Veesaar (season-ending knee injury). Houston will be without Reed Sheppard (knee bone bruise).
What could burn me. Houston owns this matchup lately. The Rockets have won four straight in the series, including a 104-86 win in Atlanta and a 117-95 win at home last season. Durant can make a 1.5-point spread disappear in about three possessions, too. And the market noticed the Hawks: this line opened with Houston favored by 1.5 before flipping. If it climbs past 3, I’d back off.
Projected score: Hawks 117, Rockets 111
It’s the Hawks’ first home game of the season, and the building should be loud after a franchise-record win. Atlanta has the fresher legs and the defense to turn Houston’s fatigue into points the other way. I’ll lay the small number.
The Pick: Hawks -1.5 (-110)
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