Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns
Saturday, October 24, 2026
10:00 PM ET, Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix
Phoenix is a 9.5-point favorite over Golden State, and the total is 219.5. My play is Under 219.5 (-110).
“Probably not, but I’ll talk to the staff.”
That was Stephen Curry on Friday night when asked if he’d play in Phoenix. Brandin Podziemski was even more direct about his back: “No, I won’t play tomorrow.” Jimmy Butler, Moses Moody and Kristaps Porzingis are already out, so the Warriors could be without two of their top three scorers from Friday and a big chunk of their rotation on the second night of a back-to-back.
The market reacted fast. Phoenix opened as a 5.5-point favorite and is now laying 9.5. The total opened at 225.5 and has dropped to 219.5. I don’t love chasing the side after a four-point jump. The total still has room to fall, though.
Who scores for Golden State?
Even with Curry, the Warriors couldn’t buy a bucket when it mattered on Friday. They led Memphis by 12 with 3:47 left, then went without a field goal the rest of the night and lost 111-108. Curry and Podziemski combined for 42 points. Take both away and you’re leaning on rookie Yaxel Lendeborg, Draymond Green and De’Anthony Melton to create offense on tired legs.
Golden State also turned it over 19 times on Friday, and sloppy ball-handling is nothing new. The Warriors ranked 27th in offensive turnover rate last season, per Basketball Reference. Phoenix ranked third in forcing turnovers. Live-ball turnovers lead to easy points, so there’s some risk there, but empty trips add up fast for an offense this short-handed.
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The Suns have something to prove
Phoenix’s opener was a disaster. Portland jumped out 21-0 and won 124-83, and the Suns shot 6-of-32 from three. “We just absolutely got blitzed and weren’t able to overcome it,” coach Jordan Ott said. Devin Booker called it “definitely a wake-up call for us.”
Expect a much more focused group in front of the home crowd, especially against the team they knocked out of the Play-In Tournament last spring, 111-96. Under Ott, this team has made its living on defense and effort. Phoenix ranked 10th in defensive rating and 24th in pace last season. That’s a grind-it-out profile, not a track meet.
The Suns are thin in spots, too. Mark Williams is out after shoulder surgery, Oso Ighodaro is doubtful with an oblique strain and Luke Kennard is questionable with a knee issue. Fewer shooters on the floor means fewer quick points.
What could go wrong
Two things. First, Curry could change his mind. If he plays, this total will tick up, and Golden State’s offense gets a lot more dangerous. Second, the blowout itself can hurt an Under. If Phoenix is up 25 in the third quarter, both benches empty and the defense gets loose. About six in ten tickets are on the Over, so the public sees points here. I think the opposite is more likely.
Projected score: Suns 114, Warriors 101
A motivated, defense-first home team against a depleted, exhausted Warriors offense adds up to a low number. I’d play this down to 217.
The Pick: Under 219.5 (-110)
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