San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks
Saturday, October 24, 2026
8:00 PM ET, American Airlines Center
The Spurs are 12.5-point favorites over the Mavericks with a total of 231.5, and my play is Under 231.5 (-110).
Who’s going to score for Dallas? That’s the question hanging over the Mavericks’ home opener, and I don’t love any of the answers.
Cooper Flagg is out. Last season’s Rookie of the Year landed hard on his left shoulder Friday in Indianapolis when Aaron Nesmith fouled him from behind on a breakaway, and he didn’t come back. “Cooper has left shoulder soreness, he’ll be evaluated in the next couple of days,” coach Dusty May said. Flagg scored 32 in the opener at Houston and was rolling again on Friday before the foul.
Dallas still won that game 121-105, and Kyrie Irving was terrific with 24 points and five threes. But look at how it happened. The Mavs led 75-40 when Flagg got hurt, then lost the second half 62-44 to a Pacers team that went 7-of-32 from deep. Without their best player, this offense ran out of ideas quickly.
Two tired teams, one very angry Wembanyama
Both teams are on the second night of a back-to-back. The Spurs only had to come up I-35 from Austin after Friday’s loss to Houston. Dallas had to fly home from Indiana after a Friday night game. Mavs Moneyball openly wondered whether Irving, 19 months removed from his torn ACL, will even play on the back end, and the Mavs are already missing Dereck Lively II, Santi Aldama, Caleb Martin, Jett Howard and Tarik Biberovic, per the Dallas Sports Journal.
San Antonio is 0-2 and stewing. The reigning West champs lost to Oklahoma City on opening night when Victor Wembanyama went 1-of-13, then dropped a 114-110 heartbreaker to the Rockets when Amen Thompson blocked Wemby’s tying layup with under a second left. The scorching offense from last season hasn’t shown up yet. The Spurs have scored 104 and 110, and both of their games finished well under this number.
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What hasn’t gone anywhere is the defense. San Antonio allowed 111.3 points per 100 possessions last season, third-best in the league per Basketball Reference, and Wembanyama still grabbed 13 rebounds against Houston. A short-handed Mavs team that was 26-56 last year and ranked near the bottom in offensive efficiency is a nice matchup for a Spurs group that wants to get its swagger back on the defensive end.
I thought about laying the 12.5 with the Spurs. The line sat at 10.5 on Friday evening and jumped after the Flagg news, though, so the value on that side is mostly gone. The Under is the cleaner play. Dallas needs Irving, P.J. Washington and Max Christie to carry the scoring, and that group just watched a 34-point halftime lead shrink to 16 in Indiana.
Where this Under can go sideways
The Spurs have plenty of guards who want to run, with De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper all able to push the ball. If San Antonio’s shooters finally wake up and score 125 by themselves, this can go over without Dallas doing much. Back-to-back legs can also lead to tired defense and an easy track meet in the fourth. And Dallas was sloppy in Houston, turning it over 21 times. If that happens again, the Spurs will get a bunch of easy transition buckets. The public agrees with that worry, with close to 60% of tickets on the Over.
I still trust the defense over two teams with tired legs. I’d play this Under down to 229.
How I see it ending: Spurs 117, Mavericks 105 (projected score)
The Pick: Under 231.5 (-110)
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