Toronto Raptors at Los Angeles Lakers
Sunday, November 1, 2026
9:00 PM ET, Crypto.com Arena
The Lakers are 4.5-point favorites over the Raptors with the total at 227.5. My play is Raptors +4.5.
The Lakers led Golden State by 25 on Friday night and lost by 17. Read that again. JJ Redick’s group turned it over 22 times, scored 15 points in the fourth quarter and walked out of Chase Center looking like a team that met in the parking lot an hour before tip. Now they get the one opponent in the league built to make that problem worse.
Toronto steals for a living, and the Lakers keep leaving the door unlocked
Here’s the whole case in one sentence: no team in the NBA forces turnovers at a higher rate than Toronto, and only three teams give the ball away more often than the Lakers. The Raptors are taking it away on 18.6% of opponent possessions. The Lakers are averaging 16.6 turnovers a night, and Austin Reaves had eight of them by himself on Friday.
Scottie Barnes is the engine of the chaos. He’s swiping 2.2 balls a game, and he’s coming off a career-high 41 on Friday against Orlando. Toronto lost that one, and Barnes and Darko Rajakovic were steaming about a 29-to-15 free throw gap. Rajakovic called Barnes getting to the line only three times “kind of B.S., to be honest with you.” A star who feels robbed and a coach who said so out loud? I like that team’s mood heading into a Sunday night in L.A.
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Extra possessions beat hot shooting more often than you’d think
The flip side matters too. Toronto barely turns it over (third-best rate in the league) and grabs its own misses at the fourth-best clip. So every trip, the Raptors are more likely to get a shot up, and more likely to get a second one. That’s how a team that doesn’t shoot it especially well hangs with a team that does.
And the Lakers do shoot it. Luka Doncic is pouring in 36.2 a night, and the Lakers lead the league in effective field goal percentage, which counts a made three as the bigger shot it is. Walker Kessler is making 72.5% of his shots, best in the league. But the defense has been shaky, 19th in points allowed per possession, and Portland already hung 136 on them in this building. Toronto, meanwhile, owns the second-best defense in the league through five games.
Redick admitted after Friday that “problem-solving and connectivity, we just didn’t have it tonight.” That’s not shocking for a roster with nine new players six games in. It’s also why I’m not laying more than a bucket with them yet.
Where this goes sideways
Kawhi Leonard is out with left-knee swelling, and the Raptors are 1-2 without him, including a 23-point beatdown in Minnesota. Toronto’s schedule has been soft, too. Their opponents have been on the softer side so far, while the Lakers have played one of the tougher slates, and a schedule-adjusted look actually favors L.A. by more than this number. The Raptors also take fewer threes than almost anyone, so if Doncic gets hot from deep, Toronto may not have the firepower to keep up. The schedule is a wash: the Raptors visit the Clippers on Monday and the Lakers host Miami, so neither side has a rest edge.
On the injury front, Ziaire Williams is questionable with a sore left foot after missing two straight, and Adou Thiero is out for the Lakers. Toronto is also without Nate Bittle.
Projected score: Lakers 113, Raptors 111. Luka gets his numbers, Toronto gets the extra possessions, and the points cash.
The Pick: Raptors +4.5
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