LA Clippers at Golden State Warriors
Sunday, November 1, 2026
8:30 PM ET, Chase Center
The Warriors are 2.5-point favorites over the Clippers with a total of 219.5, and my play is Warriors -2.5 (-105).
Yes, I know. Stephen Curry is out. Draymond Green is out. And I’m still laying points with Golden State. Hear me out, because the team coming to Chase Center has a problem that no lineup sheet can fix: it can’t hold onto the basketball.
The Warriors without their two stars aren’t the Warriors you think
Golden State is resting Curry (right knee management) and Green (low back management) on the front end of a home back-to-back, with Phoenix waiting Monday night. Fair enough. Curry is 38, he missed two months at the end of last season with that knee, and he just spent a week setting the league on fire: 8-for-8 from the field in Denver, 44 points in Minneapolis, eight threes against the Lakers. He’s earned a night on the couch.
But this roster has already shown us what it looks like without them. When both sat on October 24 in Phoenix, Golden State still hung 122 on the Suns on the second night of a back-to-back. Yaxel Lendeborg had 26, De’Anthony Melton had 25 and Brandon Williams added 20. Lendeborg, the No. 11 pick out of Michigan, is averaging 19.8 points and 7.8 boards. He’s coming off a six-point, five-turnover, foul-out mess against the Lakers, and he owned it: “Try not to wet the bed as bad as I did.” That’s a rookie who will come out hungry.
And the depth is real. The Golden State bench outscored the Lakers’ reserves 50-7 on Friday in a game the Warriors won by 17 after trailing by 25.
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The Clippers keep handing the ball to the other team
Here’s the heart of the bet. The Clippers turn it over on 21.7% of their possessions, dead last in the NBA. That’s more than one giveaway every five trips. Golden State, meanwhile, forces turnovers on 18% of opponent possessions, fourth-best in the league. In Minnesota on Friday the Clippers coughed it up and paid for it, losing the points-off-turnovers battle 28-16 in a 127-101 blowout against a Wolves team playing without Anthony Edwards.
Then there’s the glass. The Warriors are No. 1 in offensive rebounding, grabbing 33.9% of their own misses. The Clippers lost big man Yanic Konan Niederhauser to Lisfranc surgery and are getting beaten inside, as the 62-42 paint deficit in Minnesota showed. Extra turnovers plus extra second chances means Golden State gets more shots, and that matters a lot more when Curry isn’t the one taking them.
The Clippers’ offense isn’t built to win a shootout anyway. They score 1.021 points per possession, 28th in the league. This isn’t the Kawhi Clippers anymore. Leonard was traded to Toronto in September, Brandon Ingram and Max Strus haven’t played a game yet, and Bradley Beal is sidelined too. Darius Garland (22.0 points a night) is carrying a huge load, and the No. 5 pick, Keaton Wagler, has shot just 24.4% from the field during this four-game skid. “I’ve got to make sure to create separation,” the 19-year-old said this week. He’s right, and he hasn’t found it yet.
Why I could be wrong
Curry is averaging 29.2 points on 44% from deep, and you don’t just replace that. Without Draymond, the Warriors lose their defensive quarterback and their main playmaker. Golden State isn’t clean with the ball either at 17.3 turnovers a game, and if Lendeborg finds foul trouble again, the frontcourt gets thin in a hurry. The Clippers also took three of four meetings in last season’s regular season, though Golden State had the last laugh in April when Curry dropped 35 in a 126-121 play-in win that ended the Clippers’ season and, as it turned out, Kawhi’s run in LA. One more thing: the Clippers are also on a back-to-back, with Toronto, Kawhi’s new team, visiting Monday, so neither team gets a rest edge here.
Projected score and the number
The market has this anywhere from Warriors -1.5 to -2.5, and I’d play Golden State up to -3. The Clippers are 0-3 on the road and keep losing the possession battle. Golden State’s supporting cast makes them pay for it.
Projected score: Warriors 113, Clippers 106
The Pick: Warriors -2.5 (-105)
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