Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks
Monday, November 2, 2026
8:15 PM ET, Lumen Field (ESPN)
The Seahawks are 3-point favorites (-115) over the Bears with a total of 46.5, and my play is the Bears +3 (-105).
Seattle just shut down Kansas City 20-3 in prime time, and the line still went the wrong way for them. This spread opened higher and has slid to a field goal, while the moneyline dropped from around -218 to -166. Defending champs coming off statement wins usually get pricier, not cheaper. This one starts at left tackle.
Sam Darnold is about to get very popular with the Bears’ pass rush
Charles Cross reportedly has a high ankle sprain, and most reports have him doubtful or out. The first official injury report doesn’t drop until Thursday afternoon, but Mike Macdonald wasn’t selling optimism: “It’s Monday, he’s got an ankle, and we’re going to take it day by day from there.” If Cross sits, Josh Jones is next up. Seattle traded for Quenton Nelson on Tuesday, but he’s a career left guard with a few days in the building, and Macdonald wouldn’t commit to him for Monday.
That’s a scary spot against this Chicago front. The Bears rank third in sack rate (8.92%) and near the top of the league in pressure rate. Montez Sweat is back from his two-game suspension, and while he was gone Dennis Allen just blitzed more, which got slot corner Tyrique Stevenson four sacks in two games.
Darnold doesn’t need more trouble. He already sees as much pressure as any quarterback in football, he leads the NFL with 8 interceptions, and his average dropback barely moves the needle. Meanwhile Chicago gets teams off the field like nobody else, allowing a league-best 26.1% conversion rate on third down with 10 takeaways. Shaky protection plus a turnover-prone passer keeps games close.
Seattle can’t run, so Darnold can’t hide
The easy fix for a banged-up line is the ground game. Seattle doesn’t really have one. The Seahawks rank 29th in rushing efficiency and stay on schedule on only 38.9% of carries. Emanuel Wilson’s 100 yards against KC was the exception. Zach Charbonnet (coming back from his ACL) and rookie Jadarian Price are both possible, and Macdonald’s update was the most honest answer you’ll hear all week: “Could neither play? Yes.”
So Seattle throws, into the blitz, behind a backup left tackle, with an offense that sits in the bottom half of the league in efficiency. I’m not laying a field goal with that.
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Ignore Chicago’s season numbers. Watch Caleb.
Chicago’s season-long offense ranks 12th, but three of those games had Case Keenum or Tyson Bagent under center. With Caleb Williams back from his hamstring, this is a different team. He has thrown for 305 and 308 yards in back-to-back wins, and he’s completing about nine percentage points more than an average QB would on the same throws.
Ben Johnson has also solved Macdonald before. In 2024 his Detroit offense put up 7.8 yards per play and went 5-for-5 in the red zone in a 42-29 win over Seattle, although that Seahawks defense was missing several starters. And Seattle’s red-zone defense has leaked again this year, allowing touchdowns on 78.6% of trips, one of the worst rates in the league. A couple of finished drives keep this inside the number.
The schedule helps too. The Bears last played on Thursday, so they get 11 days to prepare, while Seattle gets eight after Sunday night. Chicago is 5-2 against the spread and has covered the last three meetings, including the 6-3 rock fight at Soldier Field in December 2024. Seattle, meanwhile, has covered once in four home games.
How Seattle makes me look silly
Seattle’s defense is the best unit on this field, and it isn’t close. The Seahawks allow 4.0 yards per play, a pace nobody has matched since the 2008 Steelers. They also allow the fewest explosive passes in the league. Williams knows it: “They don’t allow deep plays. So you got to be as patient as possible.” His one game against an elite defense this year was a 138-yard dud in the 9-3 loss to Minnesota, the same game he hurt his hamstring. Chicago’s run game has also dried up (295 yards over three weeks), and Kyle Monangai’s toe is a question mark, with conflicting reports on whether he plays.
Then there’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has topped 100 yards in six of seven games, against the league’s worst pass defense (8.7 yards per attempt). Chicago’s secondary is thin, too, with safety Anthony Johnson Jr. expected out and Coby Bryant on IR. If Cross gets upgraded and Nelson is ready to go, Darnold might have enough time for JSN to win this by himself. And a Seattle win by exactly 3 is a push, so if +3.5 shows up, pay a little extra for it.
The early forecast says around 48 degrees and mostly dry, but that’s five days out.
Projected score
Seattle’s defense makes Williams earn every yard, and the Bears’ rush keeps Darnold looking over his shoulder all night. Seahawks 23, Bears 21, a home win that doesn’t cover.
The Pick: Bears +3 (-105)
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