Oregon at Ohio State
Saturday, November 7, 2026
3:30 PM ET, Ohio Stadium
Ohio State is a 7.5-point favorite over Oregon, and the total is 46.5. My play is Under 46.5 (-110).
In August this looked like the game of the year: the preseason No. 1 and No. 2 teams, each with a Heisman-hopeful quarterback. Neither of those quarterbacks will play Saturday. Julian Sayin is out with a right shoulder injury and may be done for the year, and Oregon lost Dante Moore to a season-ending concussion back in September. What’s left is two very good defenses and two offenses still figuring out who they are, and that’s a recipe for a grinder.
Ohio State Without Sayin
Freshman Luke Fahey made his first start last week at USC, and the box score flatters him. He finished 21-of-38 for 260 yards, but 134 of those came before Ohio State’s final two possessions with the game already slipping away in a 30-18 loss. The Buckeyes also committed 11 penalties, and Ryan Day called the mistakes “ridiculous.” Fahey gets the start again, and I’d expect Day to protect him. That means a heavy dose of Bo Jackson, who ran for a season-high 121 yards against USC, and a lot of clock burning.
Ohio State’s defense is the reason this team is still dangerous. The Buckeyes allow 15.5 points and 273.5 yards a game, and ESPN’s FPI ranks the unit seventh nationally. Those numbers were built mostly while Sayin was keeping the offense on schedule, but a good defense doesn’t disappear because the quarterback changed.
Oregon’s Offense Is Still in Repair Mode
The Ducks fired offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer after a 21-10 loss at Illinois, and Jay Johnson is calling plays now. Dylan Raiola, a former Ohio State commit, gave them a jolt last week with 336 yards and 3 touchdowns against Northwestern. That’s one game, though. In three of the previous four, Oregon scored 15, 17 and 10 points, and Raiola got benched for a walk-on during the UCLA loss. FPI ranks this offense 61st, and the Ducks convert only 36% of their third downs. Lead back Jordon Davison left the Northwestern game with a leg injury, and his status won’t be clear until the midweek report.
The BEST 2026 Football Bonus: Deposit $100 to $1000 and get a 75% real cash bonus when you deposit using Bitcoin at Bovada Sportsbook!
Oregon’s defense has held up its end. Dan Lanning’s group ranks 11th in FPI and allows 21.4 points a game, with Matayo Uiagalelei leading a pass rush that can make a freshman quarterback uncomfortable in a hostile stadium. Put a young passer and an interim play-caller across from top-11 defenses on a cool November afternoon in Columbus, and the shootout case gets hard to make.
The Case Against Me
The market got here first. This total opened around 49 to 52.5 and has been bet down to 46.5, so a lot of the value is gone. Jeremiah Smith is the other problem. He already has 1,067 yards and 13 touchdowns, and one broken coverage can put 7 on the board in a hurry. Oregon has also given the ball away 13 times, and short fields are how unders die. If Raiola’s Northwestern game was the start of something real instead of a one-off, this one could land in the high 40s.
I still think the most likely script is Ohio State running the ball, playing defense and winning ugly. Oregon gets a couple of field goals from its strong special teams and maybe one touchdown drive, but not much more.
Projected Score: Ohio State 24, Oregon 16
The Pick: Under 46.5 (-110), fine down to 45
Bet on two backup quarterbacks to keep this one low and bring some extra bankroll into Saturday. New players at MyBookie Sportsbook get a 100% REAL CASH bonus on a first deposit of $100 to $300 with promo code PREDICT100. That’s a FREE way to bet the Under 46.5 and the rest of your Week 10 college football picks.
