Texas at Missouri
Saturday, November 7, 2026
12:00 PM ET, Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium
Texas is a 2.5-point favorite at Missouri with a total of 42.5, and my play is Missouri +2.5.
“I don’t know exactly who will be out there playing for us.” That’s Steve Sarkisian this week, describing a No. 10 Texas team he called undermanned heading into a road game it pretty much has to win to stay in the College Football Playoff picture. When the head coach of the road favorite says that out loud, I’m taking the points.
The injury list keeps growing. Texas lost left tackle Trevor Goosby for the season to a knee injury. Starting cornerbacks Kade Phillips and Graceson Littleton sat out last week’s win over Mississippi State. Wide receiver Cam Coleman barely played after the first drive, Ryan Wingo got nicked up late, and running back Hollywood Smothers is hurting again. “We obviously won’t be at full strength,” Sarkisian admitted. That’s a big problem for an offense that already struggles to run the ball. Texas averages just 134.3 rushing yards per game (102nd nationally) and 5.2 yards per play (84th), so it relies on those receivers to make big plays.
Missouri doesn’t give the ball away. Texas has the national names, but Missouri has been the cleaner team. The Tigers are +8 in turnover margin, eighth in the country. Texas is -3, which ranks 98th. Austin Simmons has thrown 16 touchdowns and only two interceptions. Arch Manning has thrown seven picks, and his season has been up and down enough that he’s slipped down NFL draft boards. Close games against top teams tend to swing on one mistake, and Texas has made more of them.
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Mizzou has the backs to lean on. Jamal Roberts already has 1,005 rushing yards and nine touchdowns. Ahmad Hardy has returned after suffering a gunshot wound in the offseason, and Eli Drinkwitz says to expect more of a rotation with him this week. Missouri averages 6.0 yards per play, 37th nationally, and it’s 4-0 at home with blowouts of Florida (45-17) and Texas A&M (27-6). Drinkwitz says the game is a sellout. He also had to tell reporters he’s “not a candidate at Florida State,” which is about as Drinkwitz-in-November as it gets. He’s also got a team that has won every time it has played at home.
Here’s how I lose this one. The Texas defense is the best unit on the field, and it’s not close. The Longhorns allow 3.8 yards per play, the fewest in the country, ESPN’s FPI rates them No. 1 in defensive efficiency, and Colin Simmons has 10.5 sacks. Missouri also stalls near the goal line. It ranks 123rd in red-zone offense, and it managed only three points in a 31-3 loss at Ole Miss. Drinkwitz is also still frustrated with penalties, calling the personal fouls “selfish penalties that need to be taken off the table.” If Missouri keeps settling for field goals and Manning hits one big shot to Wingo, Texas wins and covers.
Even so, line these teams up yard for yard and they’re nearly even. Texas outgains opponents by 1.4 yards per play and Missouri by 1.2. Give Missouri the home crowd and the turnover edge against a Texas team missing key pieces, and 2.5 points is a gift. I’d play it down to +2. A small moneyline bet on the Tigers at +120 is fair too.
Projected score: Missouri 20, Texas 17
The Pick: Missouri +2.5
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