UCLA at Minnesota
Saturday, November 7, 2026
12:00 PM ET, Huntington Bank Stadium
UCLA is a 5.5-point favorite at Minnesota with a total of 39.5, and my play is Under 39.5.
Want a fun fact? UCLA hasn’t played in Minnesota since 1977. When the Bruins arrive this time, it’ll be in the low 40s at kickoff, they’ll face a Minnesota team that already has two home upsets this season, and the Gophers’ offense will be up against a defense that would rather get a root canal than give up a touchdown. Picking the side takes some nerve. Picking a low-scoring game doesn’t.
Bob Chesney’s first season in Westwood has been ridiculous. UCLA is 8-0, ranked fifth and leading the Big Ten, and it’s done it largely with a defense run by coordinator Colin Hitschler. The Bruins allow 13.4 points per game (fifth nationally) and 4.1 yards per play (third), and opponents convert only 25.9% of their third downs. Over the last four games, UCLA has allowed 15, 7, 10 and 0 points.
The offense changed when Nico Iamaleava tore his ACL at Oregon on Oct. 10. Ty Dieffenbach, a Cal Poly transfer, has been steady since then, but UCLA has become a run-first, clock-killing team. The Bruins scored 17, 28 and 27 in his three starts. Wayne Knight has 680 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns, UCLA averages 219.5 rushing yards per game, and its 33:40 average time of possession ranks fourth nationally. Long drives also tend to stall: UCLA is 110th in red-zone scoring. That adds up to a lot of fourth-quarter field goals.
The BEST 2026 Football Bonus: Deposit $100 to $1000 and get a 75% real cash bonus when you deposit using Bitcoin at Bovada Sportsbook!
Fleck’s formula doesn’t include points
P.J. Fleck’s team knows how to play a close game. The Gophers beat Michigan 20-14 and Iowa 13-10 as home underdogs, then took fourth-ranked Indiana to overtime before losing 23-16. Look at the scores, though. Minnesota has won by being stubborn on defense and great on special teams (ESPN’s FPI rates its special teams No. 1 in the country), not by scoring points.
The offense averages 4.5 yards per play (127th nationally) and 99.5 rushing yards per game (132nd), and it converts just 32.1% of its third downs. Drake Lindsey threw for 120 yards on 37 attempts in the Indiana loss, and the heat on offensive coordinator Greg Harbaugh Jr. is turning up. In five of its seven games against FBS opponents, Minnesota has scored 20 points or fewer: 13, 20, 13, 13 and 16. Now it gets a top-five scoring defense.
Fleck’s message this week was “Peel the logo back, peel the ranking back.” That approach can keep Minnesota close, but it also leads to a lot of punts, short drives and a game clock that keeps running.
What could wreck the Under
UCLA’s takeaways are the biggest threat. The Bruins are +15 in turnover margin, second in the country, and a pick-six or a fumble at midfield could put seven easy points on the board. UCLA also gives away free yards. Its 74 penalty yards per game rank 125th, and a few drive-extending flags could turn three-and-outs into scoring drives. An overtime game would also make the Under tough to cash.
Still, this game shapes up as a field-position battle between two defenses with a combined 34 points per game allowed, and the number should be closer to the mid-30s. I’d play the Under down to 38.
Projected score: UCLA 20, Minnesota 13
The Pick: Under 39.5
Bet on a grind in the Minnesota chill and bring some extra bankroll into your Saturday slate. New players at MyBookie Sportsbook get a 100% REAL CASH bonus on a first deposit of $100 to $300 with promo code PREDICT100. That’s a FREE way to bet Under 39.5 and the rest of your Week 10 college football picks.
