Toronto Raptors at Denver Nuggets
Wednesday, November 4, 2026
9:00 PM ET, Ball Arena
The Denver Nuggets are 4.5-point favorites over the Toronto Raptors with a total of 230.5 across most books, and my play is Raptors +4.5.
What exactly has Denver done to earn this number? The Nuggets are 3-3, 1-2 in their own building, and own a negative net rating six games in. The market is pricing the name on the jersey and two very good players. I’m betting on the team that does the dirty work.
Denver has a rebounding problem, and it isn’t small. Portland walked into Ball Arena on Monday and won the glass 53-37 on the way to a 118-110 win. That wasn’t a fluke. The Nuggets grab only 68.1% of available defensive rebounds, second-worst in the league, and they’re getting outrebounded by almost four boards a night. Their defense ranks in the bottom six at 117.5 points allowed per 100 possessions.
Toronto is built to exploit exactly that. The Raptors rank second in the NBA in offensive rebounding rate, and they force turnovers on 18% of opponent possessions, the best mark in the league. Scottie Barnes is the engine: 24.4 points, 7.9 rebounds and 2.1 steals a night, plus a 41-point game against Orlando last week. Extra possessions are how a team that shoots poorly from deep (31.5%, 27th in the league) still scores 119 a game.
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This group doesn’t fold. Monday in Los Angeles, Toronto trailed the Clippers by 13 after three quarters, then dropped 47 points in the fourth to win 125-118. Immanuel Quickley scored 27, RJ Barrett had 26, and Barnes added 22 with 15 rebounds and eight assists. They did it on the second night of a back-to-back. Both teams had Tuesday off, so nobody is walking in on fumes.
The market agrees with me, a little. This line opened at Denver -5.5 and has slid to 4.5. That’s not a stampede, but it’s the right direction.
The case against me. Jamal Murray is on fire. He’s averaging 27.3 points with games of 42, 39 and 35 already, and Nikola Jokic is still Nikola Jokic at 22.0 points, 9.7 rebounds and 9.0 assists. Denver won both meetings last season, too. Toronto is also short-handed: Kawhi Leonard is out with his knee for at least a few more weeks, and Jakob Poeltl is questionable with a shoulder injury after sitting out Monday. Without Poeltl, Collin Murray-Boyles (18 points in his spot start) gets the Jokic assignment, and that’s a big ask. Toronto also fouls a ton, which hands free points to a Murray who went 11-of-11 at the line on Monday.
Honestly, this is a lean more than a hammer. The edge is real, but Poeltl’s status matters. If he’s ruled out and the line climbs past 5, I’d still take the points; if it dips to 3.5, I’d pass.
Projected score: Nuggets 116, Raptors 114
The Pick: Raptors +4.5
Toronto crashes the glass and keeps this inside the number, and you can head into Wednesday night with a bigger bankroll. New players at MyBookie Sportsbook get a 100% REAL CASH bonus on a first deposit of $100 to $300 with promo code PREDICT100. That’s a FREE way to bet the Raptors +4.5 and the rest of your Wednesday NBA picks.
