Oklahoma at Florida
Saturday, November 7, 2026
7:45 PM ET, Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Florida is a 6-point favorite (6.5 in spots) with a total of 44.5, and my play is Under 44.5.
“I don’t know if Tom Brady was our quarterback on Saturday if it would have helped us.” That’s Jon Sumrall, days after a four-turnover, 27-8 loss to Georgia. Now his offense, still without a named starter, gets an Oklahoma defense that might be the best unit on the field. The other offense just fired its coordinator. I know which way I’m leaning.
Jason Witten gets the headset, and a mess
Brent Venables fired offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle on Monday after a 42-25 home loss to South Carolina. Tight ends coach Jason Witten, the 11-time Pro Bowler who spent the last five years as a Texas high school head coach, will call plays the rest of the way. Venables put it on himself: “That starts with me.”
Good for Witten. Bad timing. The Sooners score 22 points a game, which ranks 108th in the country, and they run for just 106.8 yards a game. By success rate (how often a play actually stays on schedule) they’re 132nd. That’s not a play-calling problem you fix in four practices. It’s a blocking problem, and the offensive line is banged up and has allowed sacks at one of the worst rates in the country. Oklahoma averages 8.9 first-half points a game. A new voice in the headset doesn’t change who’s up front.
The Sooners’ defense travels
Here’s the part of Oklahoma that still works, and it works really well. Opponents have scored on just 27% of their possessions against the Sooners. They’re seventh in the country on third down, allowing conversions only 28.2% of the time, and they’ve allowed one 100-yard rusher all year. Every one of their 14 defensive starters began his career in Norman. Sumrall sees it: “The sum is greater than what you would think the individual parts are.”
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Florida’s 35 points a game is a mirage
The Gators’ scoring average looks great until you notice 66 of those points came against FAU and 52 more against FCS Campbell. Against the last four teams they’ve faced, Florida has scored 17, 19, 27 and 8. Aaron Philo got benched against Georgia after two picks, and Tramell Jones Jr. was strip-sacked for a defensive touchdown in relief. Sumrall listed both with an “or” this week, admitted “in protection, we haven’t been consistent,” and is waiting on receiver Vernell Brown III after a setback. That’s not an offense ready to blow the doors off a top-15 defense.
Jadan Baugh (801 yards, 13 touchdowns) will get his carries. Long, physical drives that end in field goals are exactly what an Under bettor wants.
Ways this Under blows up
Florida’s defense is genuinely bad. The Gators rank 119th on third down and 104th against the pass, and John Mateer has 10 touchdown passes of 20-plus yards, tied for the SEC lead. One or two of those and we’re sweating. The Oklahoma defense also scores (Kip Lewis owns three career pick-sixes), and a defensive or special teams touchdown can wreck a total in a hurry. And this number already dropped four points from 48.5, so the easy value is gone. I’d still play it down to 43.5.
Oklahoma has alternated wins and losses all season, so the pattern says the Sooners win this one. Maybe. Either way, I think it’ll be ugly.
Projected score: Florida 23, Oklahoma 17
The Pick: Under 44.5
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