Miami at Notre Dame
Saturday, November 7, 2026
7:30 PM ET, Notre Dame Stadium
Notre Dame is a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 57.5. My play is Over 57.5 (-110).
Billy Edwards Jr. went 28 of 34 for 341 yards and four touchdowns against the No. 1 team in the country last Saturday. That’s North Carolina’s quarterback, not a Heisman finalist, and he barely broke a sweat. Now Miami’s leaky secondary gets CJ Carr, College GameDay and a primetime crowd in South Bend. I’m not picking a side in this rematch. I’m betting on points.
The sequel has better offenses than the original. Miami beat Notre Dame 27-24 in last year’s opener, a game that finished at 51. Both offenses are much better now. Miami scores 47.6 points a game and rates first in the country in SP+ offense. Notre Dame scores 40.4 and rates second. Darian Mensah is completing an absurd 80.7 percent of his passes, with 25 touchdowns and one interception, and Malachi Toney has already gone over 1,000 receiving yards with 13 scores. Carr has 18 touchdowns, one pick, and has been sacked only twice all season. These are two of the cleanest, most efficient quarterbacks in the sport, and they aren’t going to punt this game away.
Miami’s pass defense has sprung a leak. The Hurricanes stop the run better than anyone, holding teams to 64.1 rushing yards a game, but the secondary is a problem. Over the last three games against Florida State, Pitt and North Carolina, Miami has given up 326.7 passing yards per game. Defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman counted 22 missed tackles against the Tar Heels, worth more than 100 yards. Mario Cristobal didn’t sugarcoat it either: “Certainly not the type of performance we want on a side of the ball.” Those three games finished with 78, 75 and 73 total points. Notre Dame doesn’t need to run the ball against this defense. Carr can pick it apart with short, accurate throws, and Hetherman admitted Carr is “very similar to the quarterback we just played with.”
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The Irish defense is missing its play-caller. Notre Dame has the nation’s No. 1 total defense at 236.3 yards per game, and that’s the best argument against this pick. But it lost key pieces before this game. Linebacker Drayk Bowen, the team’s leading tackler and the player who wears the green-dot helmet, is out. So are safety Brauntae Johnson and cornerback DJ McKinney. Getting All-American corner Leonard Moore back helps against Toney, and Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa is expected to take over the defensive calls. Still, a defense with a new play-caller and backups in the secondary is facing the most accurate quarterback in America. Losing the guy who makes the calls before the snap is a real problem against an offense that moves this fast and this cleanly.
The math is simple. Notre Dame has scored 35 or more in six of eight games. Miami has put up 33 or more in every game. Get to 30 apiece and this total is gone, and neither team has been held to 30 on a regular basis.
Why I could be wrong. Big games can turn into chess matches, especially early. Miami’s run defense could make Notre Dame one-dimensional and stall a few drives. The Irish defense, even short-handed, is still elite at tackling. A cold, windy November night in northern Indiana could slow both passing games, and a slow first half would put the Over in trouble. I’ll take those risks given how leaky Miami’s pass defense has looked.
Projected score: Notre Dame 34, Miami 31
The Pick: Over 57.5 (-110)
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