PGA Tour World Wide Technology Championship Preview
Thursday, November 5, 2026
8:30 AM ET, El Cardonal at Diamante, Los Cabos, Mexico
Ben Griffin sits at the top of most boards around +1300 for the World Wide Technology Championship, and that’s exactly where my money goes: My play is Ben Griffin to win at +1300, with a small sprinkle on Kris Ventura at +4000.
Twelve months ago, Griffin turned this golf course into a personal birdie buffet. He shot 29-under, closed with a Sunday 63, and beat Chad Ramey and Sami Valimaki by two. That 29-under is the tournament record. Now he comes back to Cabo off a T4 last week in Vallarta, and the market is still asking you to take a price north of 12-1. I’ll take it.
Tiger built a runway, and Griffin knows how to land on it
El Cardonal at Diamante is a par 72 that stretches 7,452 yards, but don’t let the yardage scare you. The Tiger Woods design has the widest fairways the Tour plays all year, and there isn’t much water or sand to punish a loose swing. The driver becomes a formality. What wins here is hitting irons close on big paspalum greens and then cashing the putts, because you’ll probably need something past 20-under to hold the trophy on Sunday.
That’s a putting-and-wedges shootout, and Griffin has already proven he wins that kind of fight on this exact property. Course knowledge isn’t magic, but on greens this particular, comfort counts for something.
The form matters too. A T4 last week means his game showed up in Mexico, on the same kind of paspalum greens. He’s not arriving off a month on the couch.
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The rest of the top of the board
Ryan Gerard has been the market’s other darling, trading anywhere from +1375 to +1500 depending on the shop. He deserves respect: eight top-10 finishes this season and four straight rounds in the 60s at the Baycurrent Classic in Japan. But he’s chasing his second career win, while Griffin is defending a title on a course that fits him like a glove.
Jackson Koivun is the most talented name in the field, the reigning Haskins Award winner and a gifted putter. He’s also making his debut here and his last start was a T65 in Utah. At around +1600 to +1800, I’d rather let him prove it first.
The sprinkle: Kris Ventura. At +4000, Ventura brings the hottest driver in the room. He tied for second last week in Vallarta and played his final 27 holes without a bogey. He’s fifth on Tour in strokes gained off the tee and third in total driving, and that ball-striking has carried over to his irons: 10th in greens in regulation. Wide fairways mute the driver edge a bit, but a guy hitting that many greens gets a lot of birdie looks. He finished T27 here last year, so the course isn’t foreign to him.
Why I could be wrong
Defending a title is hard, and 13-1 in a 120-man field is no lock. Keep an eye on the breeze. A stiffer coastal wind is forecast for the first two rounds, and that can scramble a birdie-fest and open the door for a grinder. Also, if Koivun’s putter catches fire in his debut, his talent can bury all of this. And Ventura has the power, but he still has to make putts on greens that reward feel more than force.
Projected finish: Griffin posts something around 25-under and holds off a late Gerard charge by a shot, with Ventura sneaking into the top five.
The Pick: Ben Griffin to win (+1300)
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