Iona at St. John’s
Sunday, November 8, 2026
12:00 PM ET, Madison Square Garden
No. 13 St. John’s is a 29.5-point favorite at most books with the total at 151.5, and my play is Iona +29.5.
This line opened at 24.5. Somewhere between then and Sunday morning, the market decided a Metro team that hasn’t lost yet deserved five more points of disrespect. I don’t buy it.
The number moved, the math didn’t
St. John’s is very good. KenPom has the Johnnies 27th nationally with the 11th-best defense in the country, and they’re 25-2 at the Garden since the start of the 2024-25 season. Nobody is arguing about who wins.
The argument is about margin. KenPom’s adjusted ratings put these teams about 25.6 points apart per 100 possessions. That sounds huge until you remember this game won’t have 100 possessions. With both teams’ tempo in the low 70s, that gap works out to roughly 18 points on a neutral floor. Add a healthy home-court bump and you land in the low 20s. The market is asking St. John’s to beat that by a full touchdown.
And the opener didn’t exactly scream blowout machine. St. John’s beat Monmouth 78-63 on Monday, ran the Hawks off the floor for nine minutes, then lost the thread. The Red Storm shot 35.1% in the second half with eight turnovers, per Rumble in the Garden. Keyshawn Hall was terrific with 26 points, but one guy can’t cover a 30-point spread alone.
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Iona’s defense makes the trip down from New Rochelle
Dan Geriot’s Gaels play the kind of basketball that ruins big spreads. Through two games they’ve held opponents to 31.9% shooting and 22.8% from three, according to St. John’s own game notes. That isn’t a two-game fluke either. Last season Iona ranked 26th nationally in three-point defense.
They also have size most mid-majors only dream about. Keyshawn Mitchell is 6-foot-11 and leading the team at 8.0 rebounds a game, and Alliou Fall gives them another 6-foot-10 body who protects the rim. If St. John’s has another cold stretch, Iona can end possessions with one shot instead of handing out second chances.
On offense, Kevon Vanderhorst does the heavy lifting at 18.5 points, 6.5 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game. He dropped 27 on Vermont and won it with a coast-to-coast layup at the buzzer. Then there’s Sadiku Ibine Ayo, a two-time St. John’s captain who transferred to Iona and now faces Rick Pitino, the coach who brought him into college basketball. Pitino coached Iona from 2020 to 2023, so this one has some family history on both benches.
The case against me
Iona’s offense is the weak spot. KenPom ranks it 270th, and St. John’s defense can turn those empty trips into easy run-outs. Pitino also might decide a sloppy opener calls for a full 40 minutes of pressure, and St. John’s beat Iona 91-64 at MSG last December. If Hall gets loose early and the Gaels go cold from three, 30 is reachable. A noon tip with deep benches also leaves room for a messy final eight minutes.
But defense and size travel, and Iona brings both. I’ll take the five points the market handed us.
Projected score: St. John’s 81, Iona 60
The Pick: Iona +29.5 (-115)
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