No. 21 USC at Wichita State
Sunday, November 8, 2026
11:00 PM ET, Tahoe Blue Event Center (Stateline, Nevada)
USC is a 6.5-point favorite at most books with a total of 156.5, and my play is Under 156.5.
“I think our identity is physicality,” Wichita State’s 7-foot-2 center William Berg said after the opener. Hold that thought, because it’s the whole reason I’m on the Under in the nightcap of the Lake Tahoe Classic.
The setup: a neutral floor at the Tahoe Blue Event Center, USC listed as the road team, Wichita State as the home side, and a tip that comes after most of the country has gone to bed. Both teams lit up the scoreboard in their openers. USC hung 95 on Milwaukee. The Shockers put up 79 on CSUN. The market saw those numbers and set the total in the high 150s. I think that’s chasing.
USC is huge, and that changes how Wichita State has to play. Eric Musselman’s roster has six players 6-foot-10 or taller, led by freshman twins Adonis and Darius Ratliff. Adonis poured in 25 with five threes in the opener, and Darius blocked five shots. Wichita State made just 18 of 38 shots at the rim against CSUN, per Synergy numbers cited by the Wichita Eagle, and that was against a team nowhere near this long. Expect the Shockers to slow down, run offense, look for Berg on the block and refuse to give USC’s athletes a track meet.
The Shockers don’t hand out free points. Wichita State committed just three turnovers against CSUN, tied for the second-fewest in program history. That matters, because USC’s offense feeds off chaos: 17 forced turnovers and 12 steals against Milwaukee. Take away the live-ball turnovers and you take away the easiest buckets in the Trojans’ playbook. Kenyon Giles, who dished a career-high eight assists in the opener, is the guy who has to make that happen.
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The ratings say this total is inflated. KenPom has USC 34th and Wichita State 81st, and the Shockers play at a middle-of-the-pack pace. Run their offense and defense numbers against each other on a neutral floor and you land around 150 points, a full possession-plus under this number. Wichita State also shot 37.3% from the floor in its opener and went 0-for-7 from three after halftime, so its 79 points weren’t exactly a shooting clinic.
Both frontcourts are banged up, too. USC starter Jacob Cofie played only nine minutes in the opener because of what Musselman called “severe back spasms,” and the coach admitted he’s worried about Cofie for this one. Wichita State expects Dillon Battie back, but T.J. Williams is less certain. “We need Dillon and TJ back,” Paul Mills said, “because this isn’t really how we’re going to play.” Thin rotations in November usually mean tired legs and clunky offense late.
Where this blows up. USC’s guards are legit. Alijah Arenas scored 21 on 9-of-14 shooting and Rodney Rice handed out nine assists in his first game in almost a year. If the Ratliffs keep stretching the floor and Giles gets hot, this can turn into a three-point contest in a hurry. Early-season ratings still lean heavily on preseason projections, and 40 minutes of good shooting beats any model.
I’ll take the experienced, ball-secure team trying to drag a bigger, faster opponent into the mud.
Projected score: USC 78, Wichita State 71
The Pick: Under 156.5
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