New Mexico State Aggies at Gonzaga Bulldogs
Saturday, November 7, 2026
5:00 PM ET, McCarthey Athletic Center
No. 15 Gonzaga is a 27.5-point favorite with the total at 151.5 at most books. My play is Under 151.5.
Mark Few’s Zags opened the year with a grown-up 78-72 win over Purdue in Las Vegas. Xaivian Lee dropped 18. Braden Huff went 4-of-11 for 10 and 7. That was control, not a fireworks show — and it is the tone that matters when Gonzaga comes home to McCarthey for a buy-game opener against a battered New Mexico State roster.
The Aggies are walking in short-handed.
Jason Hooten’s club scraped past Division II Western New Mexico 73-66 in its tip-off. Gabe Warren, the team’s best preseason player, tore his ACL nine minutes in and is done for the year. KK Robinson is on a minutes restriction after missing two seasons with successive ACL tears. Eligibility noise still hangs over Stephon Payne. KenPom has New Mexico State around No. 131 — respectable for a mid-major, and exactly why high majors usually duck them — but this version is compromised, and Hooten said as much to the Spokesman-Review.
Gonzaga sits near the top dozen in KenPom with an adjusted margin around +25. That gap screams “Zags win by a lot.” It does not automatically scream “clear 155 on the total.” Few’s teams are elite offensively, but once the Kennel lead is safe they often settle into half-court possessions and empty the bench. New Mexico State just proved it cannot push a track meet even against D-II. Pace suppression plus a scripted blowout is how Unders cash in Spokane.
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Why 151.5 looks soft.
Independent early projections and the Purdue box both point to a Gonzaga win in the low-to-mid 80s, not a 95-piece. New Mexico State’s frontcourt (Mark Lavrenov, Leopold Levillain) will get tested by Huff and Gonzaga’s length, but the Aggies’ path to staying respectable is grinding possessions, not trading threes. A 82-58 type final sits under this number with room; a frantic Over needs Gonzaga to keep the press on for 35 minutes, which buy games rarely demand.
Why I could be wrong.
If the Zags smell blood early and press for 12 straight made baskets, 151.5 is toast before halftime. Home-opener juice and a high-profile recruiting visitor in the building can keep starters out there longer than a typical cupcake. Early-season totals are also noisy — one hot shooting night from either side flips the script. If you need a side instead, New Mexico State +27.5 is the lean; the KenPom gap fits a mid-20s margin better than laying almost four touchdowns.
Projected score: Gonzaga 82, New Mexico State 58.
The Pick: Under 151.5
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