No. 10 Houston at California
Sunday, November 8, 2026
8:30 PM ET, Tahoe Blue Event Center (Stateline, Nevada)
Houston is a 19.5-point favorite at most books with a total of 145.5, and my play is California +19.5.
Kelvin Sampson’s teams don’t beat you. They suffocate you, slowly, for 40 minutes. That’s the beauty of Houston, and it’s also the problem with laying 19.5 points with it.
This one is a neutral-site game at the Lake Tahoe Classic inside the Tahoe Blue Event Center in Stateline, Nevada, with Houston listed as the designated visitor and Cal as the home side. Nobody’s getting a true home crowd, and that matters when the number is this big.
The best defense in America, at a walking pace
Let’s be clear about who the better team is. KenPom has Houston third in the country with the No. 1 defense, and the Cougars showed it in the opener, holding La Salle to 15-of-60 shooting (25%) in a 94-55 rout. Dedan Thomas Jr. ran the show in his Houston debut with 16 points, and Kent State transfer Delrecco Gillespie added 13. Last season Houston allowed 62.3 points a game and committed just 7.6 turnovers a night, the fewest in the nation. They don’t beat themselves. Ever.
But Houston also plays at one of the slowest paces in Division I, 318th in KenPom’s tempo rankings. Fewer possessions means fewer chances to build a margin. When I run the two teams’ efficiency numbers through a neutral-floor game, I get Houston by about 17. That’s a comfortable win and a Cal cover.
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Cal can’t stop Houston. It just needs to shoot.
Mark Madsen’s Bears are 2-0 and have been one of the hottest shooting teams of opening week, making 28 of 58 threes (48.3%) and averaging 99.5 points. Nojus Indrusaitis is scoring 25 a game and hit six threes in a 30-point night against Radford. Michael Cooper is right behind him at 20 per game. That’s two guys who can rip off three straight triples and chop a 20-point lead to 11 before Sampson can call timeout.
Will those percentages survive contact with Houston? No. Nobody shoots 48% from deep against this defense. But Cal doesn’t need to win the shooting contest. It needs a couple of hot stretches and a backdoor bucket or two in a game with maybe 70 possessions.
Why I could be wrong: Cal’s numbers came against Adams State and Radford, and KenPom ranks the Bears just 101st. Houston pulled down 47 rebounds in its opener, and if the Cougars own the offensive glass, the second chances alone can push this past 20. A cold shooting night from Indrusaitis and Cooper and this is over by halftime. That’s a real risk, so treat this as a lean on the number rather than a love letter to the Bears.
Houston wins this game. I just don’t think it wins it by 20.
Projected score: Houston 77, California 60
The Pick: California +19.5
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